"Xionan effect" catalyzes mining demand

April 5, the domestic commodity futures market co-precipitation funds 111.63 billion yuan, 2.14 billion yuan capital increase that day. Among them, 1.5 billion of money into the black chain index (coke, coal coke, iron ore, thread) "Gold Rush", coking coal and coking coal index index respectively attract 690 million yuan and 540 million yuan of new funds admission. For the strong market, the industry generally believes that the "Xionan effect" is indispensable.

In this regard, the WeChat public account "mine industry" recently released a report entitled "How much mining demand will be driven by the establishment of Xiong'an New District?" According to the article, the establishment of Xiong'an New District has considerable advantages for mining-related industries such as iron ore, coal, non-ferrous metals and its upstream and downstream.

From the perspective of iron ore demand, large-scale, high-standard infrastructure will drive demand for steel. According to the planned area, it is estimated that the initial steel consumption increase of the new district is 10 million tons, and the medium-term steel consumption increase is 20 million tons. The corresponding long-process steel mill iron ore demand increase is 17 million tons and 35 million tons. Combined with the continuous deepening of production capacity, this part of consumer demand will be dominated by high-quality mines. According to Citibank estimated to be replicated in 10 years, a total of Shenzhen takes about 120 to 140 million tons of steel. On the basis of the current domestic steel demand of about 700 million tons per year, it means an increase of about 2%. In 2017, the increase of mainstream mines (four major mines) is about 50 million tons, and the increase of ore entering the Chinese market is expected to be 3,000 to 35 million tons. Therefore, the increase in iron ore consumption in the construction of new districts can partially alleviate the increase in production of external mines. Supply pressure. From the perspective of the surrounding industrial structure and environmental protection, the construction of the new district has little impact on the resumption of mining in Hebei. However, due to the small number of steel mills near Xiong'an New District, the increase in demand for steel will drive demand for ore, especially for the inland Chengde area, which is expected to increase consumption of subway mines.

The article analyzes that the construction of Xiong'an New District will form a strong support for the demand for steel in the region. The short-term news has a leading role in price, and the impact of de-capacity and environmental protection policies will be further fermented, and the overall profit of steel, and then the iron ore of Lido. Demand, this is a big plus for the supply of iron ore with a serious excess. At the same time, combined with the strengthening of environmental protection and the deepening of de-capacity, high-quality mines will continue to be the first choice for steel mills, which will effectively delay the contradiction of total iron ore. The outbreak has enabled the mine price to maintain a strong trend under the support of structural problems. For the medium and long-term trend, it is necessary to look at the construction progress of the new district to determine the actual demand for iron ore.

Judging from the demand for non-ferrous metals, after the good news was announced, its price rose. According to China Merchants Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., in the next 10 years, the demand for copper , aluminum and zinc in Xiong'an New District is expected to reach 620,000 tons, 1.72 million tons and 359,000 tons, accounting for 5.5% of China's demand in 2015, and the average annual demand will drive 0.55%. The demand for the non-ferrous metals industry is obvious. Considering the high price of non-ferrous metal products and relatively low transportation costs, the impact on regional markets is limited.

According to the analysis of experts, according to the requirements of “excellent ecological environment and strong resource carrying capacity”, the task of going to excess capacity in Xiong’an New District will be more arduous in the future, while green, environmentally friendly and ecological new mining formats, such as geothermal , dry hot rock, etc. Clean energy will be very promising.

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