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The European and American markets will grow rapidly. It is expected that the European petrochemical market will remain in short supply and high efficiency in 2007 and will continue into the first half of 2008. European manufacturers will accelerate the expansion of ethylene capacity. Repsol-YPF’s investment of 600 million euros in Sines, Portugal will increase ethylene production by 220,000 tons/year and increase polyolefin production capacity. In 2008, BASF will expand the ethylene plant capacity in Antwerp, Belgium by 280,000 tons per year. Ineos will build a natural gas cracker in Wilhelmshaven, Germany, to produce 750,000 tons of ethylene per year.
According to the American Chemical Industry Association (ACC), the annual growth rate of the US chemical industry will increase from 2% in the previous 10 years to 2.8% in the next 10 years.
The United States will continue to expand its refining capacity to meet the increase in demand for petroleum and petrochemical products. Motiva Enterprise will expand its 14.25 million tons/year Arthur Harbor refinery in Texas to 16.25 million tons/year, making the Port Arthur Refinery the largest refinery in the United States.
The momentum for expansion in the Middle East is strong Since early 2007, there will be a large number of installations in the Middle East. About 8.3 million tons/year of ethylene capacity will be put into operation in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2008 to 2009. A number of large-scale crackers will be put into operation in GCC countries and Iran from 2010 to 2012. Saudi Arabia has planned to build several large-scale ethylene complexes from 2008 to 2009. Saudi Basic Industries Co. Ltd. built a new 1.3 million-ton/year ethylene plant in Saudi Yanbu, and is expected to start production in 2008.
Three sets of world-scale crackers from Iranian National Petrochemical Company will be put into operation in early and mid-2007, with a total capacity of more than 3 million tons/year. Analysts believe that due to the current shortage of demand, the products of these devices will be absorbed by the world market. After completion of construction in 2015, Iran will annually produce 12 million tons of ethylene, 10 million tons of polymer, 8 million tons of chemical fertilizers, 7 million tons of methanol and 4 million tons of aromatics. By then, Iranian petrochemical production capacity is expected to surpass Japan and close to Saudi Arabia.
India continues to accelerate development In the next 4 to 5 years, the Indian petrochemical industry will attract more than 18 billion U.S. dollars worth of investment, and about 10 billion U.S. dollars will be invested in downstream processing industries. Several existing and new manufacturers have participated in it. By 2008, India is expected to become a global production base and export base. In 2007, the annual growth rate of Indian polymer and fiber consumption will be 10% and 6% respectively; India's annual growth rate of plastics will be 14%.
According to the forecast of the American Chemical Systems Corporation, the annual growth rate of ethylene demand in India by 2010 is 10%. In 2010, the ethylene supply gap in India will reach 2.6 million tons/year or more, and 3 to 4 sets of world-scale ethylene plants will need to be built. It is estimated that India's petrochemical product supply shortage in 2010 is roughly: ethylene 2.6 million tons/year, PP 2.7 million tons/year, PE 2.2 million tons/year, PTA 1.2 million tons/year, PVC 800 thousand tons/year. At present, some large chemical bases in India are already under planning.
The rest of Asia is not far behind Thailand formulated a petrochemical industry development plan up to 2018 to bring the country's petrochemical industry into the third round of development. PTT Chemical will build a 1 million ton/year cracker in Mata, scheduled to start production in 2009. Downstream installations are 300,000 tons/year LDPE and 400,000 tons/year LLDPE. Dow Chemical will participate in Thailand's Siam Cement Company's naphtha cracker facility in Rayong, Thailand, and is expected to start production in 2010.
ExxonMobil will build a second 800,000-ton/year ethylene plant near its 30.25 million tons/year refinery in Singapore and start production in 2010. The cracker will be integrated with another 900,000-ton/year ethylene plant. Vietnam Petroleum will invest US$3 billion in the construction of a second refinery and petrochemical complex in the Nghi Son industrial area in northern Vietnam. Guoguang Petrochemical, a company based in Taiwan, plans to build a 1 million-tonne/year ethane cracker in Rawes, Abu Dhabi.
China is still the engine of development According to the figures reported by Deutsche Bank, the size of China's chemical industry has reached 151 billion U.S. dollars in 2005 and is expected to double again by 2015 to reach 392 billion U.S. dollars, which will exceed the annual growth rate of 10%. By then, China may become the second largest chemical producer in the world after the United States, and its share in the world chemical market will increase from the current 8% to 13%.
At present, China is the second chemical consumer country after the United States. According to Mai Jianming, president of Asia Pacific and Greater China, Dow Chemical (China) Investment Corp., China's chemicals market is expected to be within 10 to 15 years. It grew to about 800 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to the size of the U.S. market. The growth rate of China's chemical industry has made this land hot, and this year the technology construction and transfer of multinational companies in China will continue to increase.
2007 global chemical industry will continue its strong development
"Although the economic development of the United States has slowed since the second half of 2006, it will remain a good year for the development of the petrochemical industry in 2007 globally." Stanford Consulting (SRI) made the above predictions for the world petrochemical industry. The American Chemical Market Association (CMAI) also believes that the annual growth rate of global basic chemicals and plastics demand from 2007 to 2010 will reach 3.8% to 4.1%. It is expected that this momentum will not diminish until 2008, but the petrochemical industry in the Middle East and China will remain in a period of vigorous development between 2008 and 2010.