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Like the exaggerated car market, the exaggeration of the heavy truck market is also very strong. Almost every heavy truck company claims that its products are first class in China. What's even more ridiculous is that even the newly recruited heavy truck recruits hope to advance in this high-tech automotive market segment and announce that they will enter the first camp of the heavy-duty truck market within a few years, and their production and sales will achieve leapfrog development. However, in the current frantic market, their production and sales are only a few thousand. "Anyway, is this still imaginary?" said an industry insider who declined to be named. In fact, many of the heavy-armed new army's production and sales are only a few hundred or only a few dozen. Although the courage is commendable, but in the industry where the concentration of the top 5 is 83.09% and the top 10 sales are as high as 95.47%, can these new troops really have this “overwhelming†ability?
Needless to say, the CEOs of several top-heavy truck companies, who are ranked top, will most often scoff at it when they hear such rhetoric. Cai Dong of China National Heavy Duty Truck once stated that “the risk of heavy trucks and newcomers robbing the market in areas that they are not good at.†Obviously, the veterans of vested interest groups are more willing to understand their rhetoric as silly dreams. The subtext is: You may have forgotten three years ago, Shanghai Huizhong also claimed to be the top three players in the heavy truck market within five years. But today? You may have forgotten the five-year-old camp of Chunlan and Lingye, but what about today?
However, even so, the heavy truck industry's recruits were still in the collective light of the year.
Undoubtedly, this is a result of the mad increase in the Chinese heavy truck market in recent years left to the unlimited profitability of heavy trucks. Just as Chen Huanhuan, the general manager of the Heavy Truck New Army Grand Canal Heavy Truck, had years ago, who would have thought that there would be more than 700,000 market capacity in 2009? As long as there is a market, we will have our living space. â€
Along with the Grand Canal heavyweights, there are Jirui, Chang'an, Xugong, and Guangzhou Heavy-duty Heavy Industry Trucks, Hino, Seiko and other heavy trucks. On the one hand, they are desperate to make a difference in this market. On the other hand, the old state-owned enterprises have opened up their full capacity and expanded their production. One of the most obvious examples is the 80,000 heavy truck new bases Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle started in May. According to Huang Gang, general manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, “There are three drivers waiting behind each truck's sales.†Huang Gang said.
Judging from the situation since the beginning of this year, with the “blowout†of the heavy truck market, the original demand of the suppression of the financial crisis and the expansion impulse of the manufacturers were fully released. Not only Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, but also heavy truck giants such as Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, both in production and sales in the first half of the year, are all close to the total volume of last year. For example, despite the fact that afterwards, Valin had lost nearly 6,000 orders in the first two years due to insufficient supply of engines and other components, Hualing sold 18,000 heavy trucks in the first half of this year. According to Liu Hanru, chairman of the board of directors, although the sales volume is only the sixth and seventh place in the country, only the more than 1,000 employees of Valin are among the most profitable companies in China. This is obviously not comparable to other companies.
Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that during the first half of this year, China’s heavy trucks sold a total of 582,400 units of heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 112%. The sales volume was close to the level of 663,200 units in 2009, and the high growth of the heavy truck industry in 2010 has become a foregone conclusion.
However, the huge soaring price has made the company's gearbox manager Li Dakai happy and mixed. The joy is: As a monopoly giant of the heavy-duty truck transmission, Fast has earned enough horsepower to make full use of it. The worry is that the blowout market in China's heavy-duty truck market will not last long. . By then, the shadow of overcapacity and underemployment will be overshadowed by the entire industry.
Liu Hanru holds the same view as Li Dakai.
Even today's market has been hot for days, but Liu Hanru is still not optimistic about the trend of China's heavy trucks in the second half of this year. He believes that the market situation of high front and low back has already fully manifested itself. In the second half of the year, if you do not rely on the bank’s loan function, vehicles of major companies will be difficult to sell. Heavy-duty truck companies must plan ahead and prepare for the days ahead.
The market may indeed be as described by Liu Hanru, and news from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers indicates that orders for heavy trucks in China have begun to decrease in June. Heavy truck sales were 93,800 units, a decrease of 12.3% from the previous quarter.
“The peak of sales reached in March and April this year. In fact, the demand for orders in May has been reduced. Taking into account the practice of seasonal sales, it is estimated that it will enter a stable state in July.†Huang Gang explained the current market. Quotes.
Specifically, in terms of subdivided products, in June, the total sales of heavy trucks totaled 23,200 units, an increase of 135.6% year-on-year, and a decrease of 18.5% from the previous period; sales of heavy-duty truck chassis were 36,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; sales of semitrailer tractors There were 34,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 90% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%.
It is worth mentioning that the chain growth rate of semi-trailer tractors in June was much lower than that of heavy-duty trucks and chassis, strongly suggesting that the demand for civil engineering heavy-duty truck products stimulated by the government’s 4 trillion yuan policy in the first half of the year has already shown a trend. Light trend. The demand for road freight heavy truck products still maintains this high degree of prosperity. Many companies believe that with the gradual withdrawal of the 4 trillion bailout policy, China's heavy truck market will return to rationality in the future. Production and sales increase at a rate of roughly 10% a year. There will no longer be a blowout market similar to the first half of this year. According to this statement, this year it will increase to 700,000 units on the basis of 630,000 vehicles last year, 770,000 next year, and 850,000 vehicles the following year. This year, too many 1 million vehicles will be significantly reduced. In other words, the heavy truck market will be significantly lower than the original forecast of 770,000 next year.
“The trend of highs and lows before the year remained almost unchanged, and we believe that the total demand in the market this year will certainly be higher than last year, and the total volume will reach 1 million. However, sales in the first half of the year may account for 60% of the whole year. -70%." Huang Gang said.
The same point of view as Huang Gang is Xu Changming, director of the National Information Center. He told the journal that if 3 and 4 quarters can maintain higher GDP growth, the production and sales of 1 million heavy trucks will become a reality. However, in the second half of the year, the heavy-duty truck industry will still face many risks, such as the real estate industry and the slowdown in investment in civil construction. The sales volume of the products has been too concentrated in the first half of the year. In the first half of next year, it is very likely that the market will suffer a severe crisis.
"One million vehicles is probably the highest peak in sales in China's heavy truck market. Of course, this also includes the number of heavy trucks exported overseas." Li Dakai told the journal.
But more car companies have already increased their capacity planning in the face of crazy markets. According to preliminary estimates, the planned production capacity of major car companies in the country this year has been close to 1.5 million. According to this figure, one-third of companies will surely find it difficult to complete their tasks.
This year at the Beijing International Auto Show, Chang'an Heavy-Duty's chairman, Lian Gang, stated that Changan Heavy Duty Truck has determined the development target “1531†for the next three years: 15 is to sell more than 15,000 units within 3 years; 3 is to sell revenue within 3 years More than 30 billion; 1 is the top 10 to enter the industry within three years.
It should be noted that in the first four months of this year, sales of Chang'an Heavy Duty Truck were only 879 units. At this rate, Changan Heavy Trucks will take 6 years to reach the goal of 15,000 vehicles. As mentioned before, the Universiade heavy truck before the Beijing Auto Show in April, production and sales of 600 units but also the area. The Universiade Heavy Trucks has already completed an investment of more than 2 billion yuan and plans to achieve 20,000 capacity this year. According to the initial planning and design, the planned goal of the first phase of the Universiade Heavy Truck is to produce 50,000 heavy trucks per year and 100,000 heavy trucks in the second phase.
Liu Hanru told reporters that the current capacity of the heavy truck market in China has exceeded 2 million vehicles. At present, there are companies such as Brilliance that are still in the heavy truck industry. By 2015, this figure will reach more than 3 million.
If the market as judged by the aforementioned experts, 1 million vehicles is the peak of the Chinese market, then the future of China's heavy truck market will surely usher in the most brutal market competition. By then, heavy-duty truck companies like Chunlan, Lingye and Dongfanghong will be "the waves of the Yangtze River pushing forward and the front waves dying on the beach." Especially if new technologies such as Chang'an Heavy Duty Trucks have accumulated insufficiently. The bigger risk lies in: Where will the 2 million heavy trucks capacity in the future go?