China's tires exported to the United States each have a value of only one billion US dollars. The United States has reacted fiercely to this, and its real purpose may be the Chinese auto industry. background US President Barack Obama announced on September 11 that he will impose punitive tariffs on all imported cars and light truck tires from China. In April of this year, the American Iron and Steel Workers’ Federation applied to the US International Trade Commission for the investigation of Chinese tires for passenger cars on the grounds that China’s tire exports to the United States disrupted the US market. On June 29, the U.S. Trade Commission proposed to impose special ad valorem tariffs of 55%, 45%, and 35% on China's imported cars and light truck tires for three consecutive years on the basis of the current 4% import tariff. White House spokesman Gibbs said that Obama has approved China's special security sanctions, but decided to impose tariffs for three years were 35%, 30% and 25%. According to observers, Obama’s motive for making this decision was mainly to win union support for the health reform plan. The U.S. Steel Workers Union stated in its lawsuit that the large number of imported tires from China has harmed the interests of the local tire industry; if it does not take measures against Chinese tires, 3,000 American workers will lose their jobs by the end of this year. Roy Littlefield, executive chairman of the American Tire Industry Association, said that this decision will not promote employment in the United States and will only allow tire manufacturers to move factories to other low-cost countries. The new tire tariff policy of the United States came into effect on September 26 this year. According to WTO rules, relevant countries can directly invoke the US sanctions program to impose sanctions on Chinese tires. After this news was announced, the Chinese side immediately responded. Yao Jian, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that China strongly opposes this serious trade protectionist act by the United States, which not only violates the WTO rules, but also violates the US government’s actions in G20 finance. The relevant commitments at the summit are the misuse of trade remedy measures. They have opened a very bad precedent in the current crisis of the world economy. The Chinese side will reserve the right to make further responses. "Obama has imposed special security tariffs on Chinese tires exported to the United States. This is a bad decision." The British "Financial Times" wrote in the editorial. On September 11, U.S. President Barack Obama approved a three-year punitive tariff on cars imported from China and tires less than 16 inches in size starting from September 26, 2009, with tax rates as high as 35% and 30% respectively. 25%, and this tax rate was only 4%. This is Obama's response to the United States Steel Workers' Federation, who filed an application in April 2009 for special safeguard measures for China's transportation to the United States by passengers and light truck tires. Although this tax rate is lower than the previous US International Trade Commission proposed tax rate, this incident will undoubtedly have a direct impact on the Chinese tire industry and related listed companies. According to customs statistics, China exported 130 million tires in the first half of this year, and exported 33.07 million, 25.42 million, 17.77 million, and 16.06 million tires to the United States, the European Union, Africa, and Latin America respectively. The US market is the first major exporter of Chinese tires. In the market, the “special security case†is bound to hit Chinese tire exporters. Some analysts believe that if the United States considers protecting its own employment and related industries, it will not exclude tariff protection for other auto parts and vehicles after the tire "special protection case." If so, the blow will be even bigger. "Special Protection Case" Let China's Tire Industry Be Faced with the Troubles "Special Protection" is the abbreviation of "Transitional Guarantee Mechanism for Specific Products" and "Special Safeguard Measures." According to the WTO regulations, if Chinese products are exported to relevant WTO member countries, if the number increases too much, so that the When related industries cause “serious damage†or constitute a “serious damage threatâ€, these WTO members can independently adopt safeguard measures against Chinese products. In April 2009, the American Steel Workers Association applied to the US International Trade Commission for a quota system for commercial tires that China exported to the United States. In the ensuing months, the Chinese enterprise delegation and the Ministry of Commerce made a lot of efforts to avoid the “special security case†and domestic companies placed high expectations on this. “Although the punitive tariff rate is lower than the previous proposal rate, it is still slightly higher than expected, and the overall impact will be negative,†said Zhou Xiaobo, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo. Zhou Xiaobo believes that according to the 2008 statistics of 43 tire companies, tire exports account for about 45% of total production; about 30% of exports are expected to be exported to the United States. Therefore, the volume of tires exported to the United States accounts for about 13% of the total domestic production. Since the “special security case†only targets small cars and light truck tires, it has no impact on heavy-duty trucks and engineering tires. As China's corporate tire product structure is dominated by heavy-duty tires and engineering tires, it is estimated that the proportion of small cars and light truck tires exported to the United States in the total output of tires in China should be less than 10%. But the question is whether other countries will invoke the U.S. "special protection" measures. This is an important point of our future concern. Because according to the WTO agreement, other countries can directly cite the United States "special protection case" ruling. If other countries directly invoke the U.S. "special protection" measures, China's tire exports will be all-sided. Prior to May 18, India launched an investigation into the special insurance for passenger car tires in China. On June 18, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission decided to impose anti-dumping duties on radial tires for passenger and cargo vehicles imported from China. Now, with the help of the United States, China’s tire export situation will become increasingly severe. Once the tire export is blocked to domestic sales, it will increase the competitive pressure in the domestic market. If the export price is increased, the competitiveness in overseas markets will be greatly reduced. After the “special security case†was announced, Yao Jian, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China strongly opposes this serious trade protectionist act by the United States, which not only violates the WTO rules but also violates the US government’s G20 financial summit. The relevant commitment is the abuse of trade remedy measures. It has set a very bad precedent in the context of the current world economic crisis. China will reserve the right to make further responses. Inconsistent effects on tire listed companies Affected by the “Special Protection Caseâ€, on September 14, Shuang Qiang shares (600623) and S-Guitton (600182), the tire-listed companies, immediately went down at the opening, with Qingdao Shuangxing (000599), Yantai Tire A (000589) and Aeolus shares. (600469) are all close to the limit of the day. On the same day, Shuang Qiang and S.G.T. had failed to open the daily limit. Previously, tire stocks were one of the few bright spots in the market decline, with individual stocks gaining a large margin, with the largest double-money stakes rising more than 100% since August. On the second day, S.G.T. issued an announcement saying that the United States is one of the important markets for Fujian Jiatong Tire's export products controlled by the company. In 2008, Fujian Jiatong Tire's passenger and light truck tires sold in the US market accounted for about its annual sales. 1/4 of income. The U.S. government’s special protection measures for tires produced in China are expected to have an adverse impact on the company’s future sales in the US market. The specific impact amount cannot be accurately estimated at this time. On the same day, Yan Tire announced that since the sales revenue of the tires involved in the company accounted for a relatively small proportion of the company's total operating revenue during the same period, the “special protection case†had little direct impact on the company. In the announcement, Nguyen Tire also stated that the United States imposed special security sanctions on China-related tires, which will have a negative impact on the export of Chinese tire products to the United States. If the products involved are transferred to domestic sales, they will increase the supply of domestic similar products and make the market competitive. The pattern has changed. Due to the complexity of the market transmission mechanism, it is difficult to predict the specific changes in the domestic related product market in the future. The company will continue to pay attention to market changes and take active and effective countermeasures to minimize adverse effects. In addition, Qingdao Shuangxing, Fengshen shares and Shuangqian shares also announced this announcement. Among them, Qingdao Double Star claimed that from January to August this year, the company’s export revenue to the United States accounted for less than 2% of its total operating income. The “special protection case†had little direct impact on the company; the latter two listed companies all stated in the announcement that the company exported to the United States. The tire products in the market are heavy-duty cards and passenger car tires. This “special protection case†has no impact on its operating income in the second half of the year. After analyzing each listed company one by one, Zhou Xiaobo believes that statically looking at the product structure and export ratio, the listed company's Aeolus shares and Tire Tire have less impact, which has a greater impact on S-Gatcom. Fengshen’s shares account for about 40% of its export revenue, but basically all steel tires and engineering tires; the proportion of export of helium tires is about 18%, with mainly heavy-duty tires and engineering tires, with minor impact. "Special Protection Case" is intended for the Chinese automotive industry “Of course this is not just a tire that affects China’s $1 billion worth of tires that are exported to the United States each year. Both sides understand that behind the controversy is the US$100 billion worth of autos, parts and engines imported from abroad each year.†After the tire "special protection case" was announced, a foreign media commented on this incident. Guotai Junan analyst Zhang Xin believes that for this tire special security case, we should stand in a higher and more macro perspective to reflect on China's future economic development, industrial layout, corporate quality, trade coordination and communication, And so on; to carry out thorough reflections from multiple angles and wide angles of view. Zhang Xin said that as far as the Chinese auto industry itself is concerned, as of the end of August 2009, the country’s car ownership amounted to 66.5 million vehicles. The forecast shows that the total number of cars that can be accommodated in China is between 120 and 150 million vehicles, and there is still room for doubling. Therefore, at present, China's domestic auto market is far from saturated, and if it is estimated that 12 million to 15 million vehicles will be produced and sold every year, it will ensure steady development for at least ten years. However, an unfavorable trend is that the production capacity of related companies is also continuing to expand. According to current estimates, if companies open up production, they can reach at least 20 million to 25 million vehicles each year. In this way, it is bound to have 20% to 30% or more of products need to find another way out, in other words, export. At present, like the tire industry, China's auto industry faces the lack of core technologies and the trend of increasing product homogeneity. The market-dominated products are basically occupied by foreign joint venture trademarks. Therefore, relying on exports to ease the pressure on production capacity not only depends on the foreign face of the joint venture, but may also face the outcome of being “special protection†or “anti-dumping†by other countries. In this regard, relevant industries should have a clear understanding and estimation. 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