Construction machinery has reached the peak of the boom or growth rate in the second half of the year

The environment of the machinery industry is still tight in the second half of the year. At present, the growth rate of industrial added value and growth rate of investment, which are closely related to the machinery industry, have all confirmed a downward trend. It is expected that the property market will still be in an inventory accumulation stage and the overall operating environment of the machinery industry will be tight. The structural transformation of the economy, the appreciation of the renminbi, and rising labor costs will drive the internal structure of the machinery industry from serving traditional heavy industries and export-oriented industries to serving the emerging industries and forecasting the growth rate of the machinery industry by about 20% for the full year.

Construction machinery or has reached the peak of this round of boom. In the first five months, the construction machinery increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and the main products achieved overall growth. The scrapers, excavators, and loaders all increased by more than 50%. We have determined that the construction machinery has reached the peak of this round of boom, and that the growth rate will fall in the second half of the year will be a high probability event. The annual sales value of engineering machinery sales is expected to increase by about 25%.

Machine tool industry orders have slowed down. In the first five months, the machine tool industry increased by 40.7% year-on-year, including 25.95% of gold-cutting machine tools, 54.34% of CNC machine tools, and 105.96% of CNC equipment. The structural recovery turned to a full recovery. However, some companies have noticed that orders have slowed down, and it is expected that the annual sales of the industry will increase by about 20%.

The demand for metallurgical equipment in heavy mining machinery is low. In the first five months, heavy mining machinery increased by 23.3% year-on-year, of which export value was 21.05 billion yuan, of which mining equipment increased by 19.09%, metal smelting equipment increased by 7.81%, and metal rolling equipment increased by -7.78%. At present, the order quantity of metallurgical equipment has dropped drastically, and the growth of metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment has been sluggish. We expect the heavy mineral machinery demand may return to a downward trend as the domestic economy falls in the second half of the year.

The demand for traditional power equipment is not strong. In the first five months, turbine generators increased by 21.09%, power station boilers increased by 11.43% year-on-year, transformers increased by -3.87%, and high-voltage switchgears increased by 5.17%. The demand for primary power transmission equipment showing traditional thermal power generation equipment and transformers and high voltage switches is not strong. With the newly installed capacity of domestic power peaked, it is expected that the traditional power equipment as a whole will hardly have a big change.

The emerging industry is vibrant. Compared with the decline in the traditional machinery industry, some emerging industries such as nuclear power, offshore wind power, rail transit, energy saving and emission reduction, smart grids and other emerging industries are full of vitality. Photovoltaic and hydropower policies have also sent positive signals and will remain the next stage. Investment focus.

Industry ratings and risk factors. Maintaining a “neutral” rating for the industry, the sub-sector’s recommendations focus on emerging industries such as nuclear power, offshore wind power, rail transit, energy conservation and emission reduction, and smart grids