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The high starting point of the price fluctuations At the end of last year, the domestic PVC prices entered a rational return after the red, but the PVC price decline rate and speed are greater than, faster than the price of raw materials fell, PVC business status quickly changed from high-profit to loss. Industry analysts believe that the cost and supply-demand relationship in 2011 is still the key to determine the domestic PVC market price. As the issue of overcapacity is still outstanding, the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and raw materials and various power costs are always high, making it harder for PVC companies to make profits.
In order to ensure that the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy-saving and emission reduction targets are completed on schedule, the relevant production-restricting policies have been continuously increased throughout the country last year, and their impact on chlor-alkali and related industries will gradually emerge in the second half of the year. The PVC industry is affected by the tight supply of calcium carbide raw materials and measures such as limited power supply and limited production. The average monthly load of the industry's production equipment is always around 60%. Poor start-up caused a shortage of supply in the market and PVC prices rose significantly after September last year. However, high raw material prices and low operating rates have led to an increase in overall costs, and rising product prices have not fundamentally improved the overall operating efficiency of the industry.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the state will formulate more concrete implementation measures such as energy consumption control, clean production, and differential electricity prices for the “two-high†industries. The implementation of the national macro-policy will trigger a price shock for PVC. Moreover, in 2011, the state emphasized the regulation of the industry plan, and changes in the real estate market will also affect PVC demand. It is expected that the domestic PVC market price will fluctuate at a high starting point this year, and it is unlikely that the price will drop sharply during the year.
Exports are expected to emerge from the downturn From January to November last year, China has exported a total of 214,000 tons of PVC pure powder. The continuous downturn in overseas demand, higher prices in the domestic market, and the appreciation of the renminbi have greatly affected China's PVC pure powder export trade. Without considering the special factors of the financial crisis in 2009, the domestic PVC pure powder export volume in 2010 may be the lowest level since 2006. From the perspective of the export market of PVC pure powder last year, Russia and some Central Asian countries have already replaced India and Turkey as the main export markets of China's PVC pure powder.
The continuous increase of PVC production capacity will enable manufacturers to work hard to find more suitable export trade space. With the improvement of the economic recovery and foreign trade exchange order recognition of various countries, China's PVC export business is expected to rebound in 2011.
Accelerated diversification and integration Industry insiders predict that China's PVC industry is experiencing or will inevitably experience adjustments in the industrial structure and production layout in the future, and will transition from high-speed development to stable integration. In 2011, a large number of new production capacity will be put into production, which will accelerate the pace of industry consolidation.
There are mainly two ways to integrate PVC industry in the future. First, resource industries such as coal, electricity, and metallurgy have expanded to the PVC industry. Existing PVC production companies already have a lot of coal, electricity and other background businesses, such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng Chemical, Inner Mongolia Yili Chemical, Inner Mongolia Jilantai salinization, and the number of such enterprises is gradually increasing. Secondly, the upstream enterprises through the merger and reorganization of the PVC production companies to integrate, such as the Henan Pingdingshan Coal Group and the Shenma Group to form the China Pingmei Shenma Energy Chemical Group. This kind of integration will be more common in the future, and the development of China's PVC industry will be more diversified.
In addition, the eastern chlor-alkali enterprises are seeking refined development ideas, and large-scale PVC production facilities will gradually move westwards. In the western region, relying on resources and energy price advantages, the trend of large-scale and centralized devices is very clear, and the control over the PVC market is gradually strengthened. In the eastern region, many PVC enterprises are facing relocation pressures. On the other hand, the regulations stipulate that the eastern region will no longer create new calcium carbide process PVC projects and its supporting caustic soda projects in principle. In the past two years, the eastern relocation or reconstruction and expansion of Taking the PVC business as the main direction, it is more to use its own chlorine resources to enter the fine chemical industry with high threshold and high added value. For example, after Fujian ECO's parking and relocation in 2010, it will build an annual output of 140,000 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI) in the next two years, and use its byproduct hydrogen chloride to produce 100,000 tons/year of calcium carbide process PVC.
PVC: Accelerating Industry Consolidation due to High Price Turbulence
China Chlor-Alkali Network statistics show that as of November 2010, domestic PVC production capacity has increased to 20.69 million tons, an increase of 16.2% year-on-year. In 2011, China will have approximately 5.74 million tons of newly expanded or newly-built production capacity. Experts predict that due to this, the situation of PVC supply oversupply in 2011 will be difficult to change in the short term, and it will be more difficult for companies to make profits, and prices will fluctuate at high points. At the same time, due to the rapid expansion of production capacity and the large difference in the ownership of energy and resource materials by investors, the pace of industry consolidation will also accelerate with the release of large production capacity.