The decline in output growth will have to wait for the recovery of the non-ferrous metals market

Recently, the Jinchuan Group Precision Copper Company successfully developed a pure nickel N6 pipe with a specification of 100×12.5, marking the company’s further development in the development of pure nickel series seamless pipe products. The picture shows the pipe extrusion site. (photo by Liang Yi)

In February 2012, China's industrial growth was dragged down by negative sales growth and declining output of the two major downstream industries, such as autos and real estate, which was only 11.4%, which was a sharp decline from December and lower than investors’ expectations. From January to February, the production of ten non-ferrous metals increased by 8.4% year-on-year, which was a drop from the average monthly growth rate in 2011.

Since mid-March, due to China's firm control over real estate, coupled with the turmoil in the global economy and the inability to grow, the market’s recovery in demand for non-ferrous metal products has become increasingly pessimistic. The non-ferrous metals futures market has experienced a wide range of shocks. After the US retail and manufacturing data became better, non-ferrous base metals recovered back some of the lost ground.

Industry insiders predict that the year-on-year growth rate of China's industry, investment, and import and export will still fall back in March, but industrial growth is expected to bottom out after April, and the market for related non-ferrous metal products may also show good momentum. trend. However, due to the pessimistic growth of downstream demand in the domestic and foreign markets, the real demand recovery of the non-ferrous metals industry still needs to wait.

The growth rate of main products has dropped back In January-February 2012, the output of major non-ferrous metal products in China was as follows: The output of refined copper was 8.7 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year; the output of primary aluminum was 3.013 million tons, an increase of 14.0% over the previous year; zinc production. 772,000 tons, down 1.9% year-on-year; lead production 579,000 tons, an increase of 2.3%.

Copper production was 1.583 million tons, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year; aluminum production was 4.094 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.

The output of ten non-ferrous metals totaled 5.48 million tons, an increase of 8.4% over the same period of last year. The growth rate fell from the average monthly growth rate in 2011 and basically reached the target of controlling the growth rate of non-ferrous metal production in the “12th Five-Year Plan” at around 8%. .

At the same time, imports and exports of major non-ferrous metal products increased significantly in February. Among them, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials was 485,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 105.8%, and the growth of import volume reached the highest level in the same period of the calendar year; the import volume of alumina was 28.0 million tons, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year; The output of aluminum was 125,000 tons, an increase of 107.0% over the same period of last year.

The aluminum industry's output reduction process will continue in February. The average domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum fell by RMB 100/ton compared with the same period last year, and fell to the level of RMB 15,900/ton. From the beginning of February until now, the price of carbon anodes, the main raw material for aluminum smelting, has risen by RMB 150/tonne. Two factors have caused the loss of tons of aluminum in the domestic aluminum smelting industry to increase from RMB 430 in January to about RMB 590 in the current period. The pressure on cost of smelting enterprises has been further expanded, and it is expected that the industry's output reduction will continue.

It is understood that the capacity utilization rate of the aluminum industry fell significantly from the end of 2011. In February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate was 81.5%, and the alumina capacity utilization rate was 82.1%, which was a decrease of 3 percentage points and 6.5 points compared with December 2011 respectively. Percentage points, in line with the industry's previous expectations of the industry's production cuts. From January to February, the output of primary aluminum still increased by 14.0% year-on-year, which was due to the fact that domestic aluminum electrolytic capacity utilization was only 73% in the same period of 2011.

At the same time, the operating rate of aluminum smelters continued to decline. In January, the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the country was 24.65 million tons, the production capacity was started at 2010 tons, and the operating rate was 81.53%, a slight decrease from the 84.5% in December 2011; the production capacity of alumina was 48.79 million tons and the production capacity was 40.06 million tons. The rate was 82.11%, a decrease of approximately 6% from the previous quarter. Looking at the aluminum consumption index, the aluminum consumption index in both January and February 2012 showed a significant decline from the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The sales data of the major downstream industries such as real estate and automobile industries was poor during the first two months of this year.

At the same time, China’s aluminum imports have increased significantly in February. Among them, alumina imports amounted to 280,000 tons, up 24.6% year-on-year; unwrought aluminum and aluminum production reached 125,000 tons, an increase of 107.0% year-on-year.

After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional peak season for aluminum consumption. However, due to the expected slowdown in the downstream industry this year, the utilization rate of domestic aluminum processing industry has declined. In January, the operating rate of domestic aluminum processing companies was only about 40%, and the operating rate of enterprises in February rebounded. From January to February, aluminum production increased by 18.3% year-on-year, but compared with the growth rate of about 40% in the same period of 2010 and 2011, the growth rate in 2012 has already slowed down significantly.

Copper market demand has yet to recover copper <br> <br> main downstream consumer industries including power cable (55%), air conditioning and refrigeration (15%), construction and real estate (10%). At present, the power cable industry is operating in a similar situation to previous years, with no significant fluctuations. From January to February of this year, the production and sales volume of the domestic air-conditioning industry fell sharply year-on-year. At present, de-stocking is becoming a business strategy for air-conditioning manufacturing companies. The production and sales of copper tubes for air conditioning and refrigeration have decreased significantly. In addition, the expected slowdown in the real estate industry will also drag down domestic copper demand.

In January this year, the output of refined copper was 433,000 tons, and domestic refined copper production was 437,000 tons in February. The total in January and February increased by 9.43% year-on-year, and the average output decreased by 0.22 million tons month-on-month. From January to February, the domestic production of refined copper and copper increased at a slightly higher rate than the same period of 2011, but the downstream consumption declined significantly.

In addition, imports of unwrought copper and copper from China have increased significantly year-on-year. In February, China’s unforged copper and copper imports amounted to 485,000 tons, a substantial year-on-year increase of 105.8%, and the growth rate of imports reached the highest level in the same period of the calendar year, which will further increase the oversupply pressure in the domestic copper market.

Lead and zinc supply exceeds demand for hard-to-find changes In January and February 2012, domestic refined lead production was 27.1 and 30.8 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%; in January, the domestic lead enterprise operating rate returned within 60% to 56.32%. Close to the low rate of operating rate in October 2011. Zinc production in January and February 2012 was 37 and 402,000 tons respectively, a decrease of 3.38% in total. In January, the operating rate of domestic zinc producers was only 61.35%, continuing the downward trend that began in January 2011. The state's rectification of lead-acid battery plants has affected the demand for lead, and the economic downturn has also led to the downturn in demand for lead and zinc. In addition, the maintenance and repairs of the lead-zinc mine and the Danxia smelter at the Nanfangkou Zhongjinling Mine in Zhongjinling also affected the recovery of lead and zinc production.