Opportunities for Construction Machinery in the First Half of 2012 in the Second Half of the Year

Looking back at the Chinese excavation machinery market in 2011, the word "promotion" had to be mentioned. With the temptation of zero down payment, low down payment, and big prize, sales in 2011 were more or less overdrawn for future demand. Under the background of the slowdown in the growth of the two key downstream investments in real estate and infrastructure, the Chinese market for excavating machinery in 2012 will be very difficult. The difficulty of breaking through the difficulties will be a long way to go.

Although the CPI declines, but "four trillion" will not come again, the regulation is still more stringent, there is no increase in the number of affordable housing, the real estate growth rate is unavoidably declining, the decline in railway investment will drag down the growth rate of infrastructure investment, and the downward trend of fixed asset investment growth. Has become. This is bound to seriously affect the future of China's mining machinery market.

From the perspective of the overall sales volume of the entire Chinese excavation machinery market, I think the overall characteristics of the entire excavation machinery market is “layout in the first half of the year and opportunities in the second half of the year”. In the first half of 2012, the expected decline in growth rate will gradually narrow, and the entire excavation machinery industry will experience destocking in the short-term, then the off-season will be particularly deserted, and the market will not be hot during the peak season. However, due to the high base, negative growth was basically established in the first quarter of 2012. For example, in March 2011, the monthly sales volume reached 43,000 units under the promotion stimulus, which was more than twice the level of the previous year's normal year-on-year level, which is a level that cannot be surpassed in a single month in 2012. It is expected that the annual sales growth of the industry in 2012 will be around 10%, and the increase will not come mainly from investment increments, but from the further sinking of demand.