Why the Overcapacity of Domestic Automobiles Has Been Overcapacity?

Why the Overcapacity of Domestic Automobiles Has Been Overcapacity?

In response to the problem of excess production capacity in the country, such old topics have actually been raised many times before, and almost every time the number of inventories soars and market sales are sluggish, this old topic must be brought to the sun so that the industry can The string of overcapacity in cars can always be raised. However, I do not know whether the domestic tolerance of the stock is too high, or because of the strong confidence in exports, even if there is a critical point of more than 10% of the domestic inventory, it is difficult to become the basis for excess production alert. In this way, not only will there be more arguments about the growth of stocks, it seems that they are also avoiding the problem of overcapacity.

Recently, according to related research reports, it is believed that by 2016, China will become the country with the most serious automobile overcapacity in the BRICS countries. According to another international expert's argument on domestic automobile issues, in the next few years, the most important issue that may affect the development of domestic autos will also be the issue of overcapacity. The reason for this is that, due to the uncontrolled development of production capacity and inventory, it is difficult to let the progress of the industry proceed without any worry; on the other hand, it is too superstitious to believe that its own market is so large that even under the condition of simultaneous development of the BRICS countries. It is likely that domestic cars will be subject to market segmentation and export issues. In this way, if the issue of overcapacity in domestic cars is not properly considered and the backward production is eliminated and the auto export problem cannot be solved, it will probably have an unimaginable impact on domestic cars.

Why inventory pressure is the main cause of excess capacity

Due to the continuous increase in inventory, the auto market has been under considerable pressure. This is not only at the manufacturing level, but also at the same time as the market environment. Therefore, at a time when the growth rate of domestic automobile manufacturing continues to slow and the consumer market is experiencing various problems, the industry will naturally be linked to the overcapacity concerns. . In particular, this issue will become even more apparent when the volume of domestic autos shifts towards quality.

In view of the continuous reduction in the growth of automobile production and sales volume, despite the fact that it has experienced new lows for many years, due to the fact that domestic automobile manufacturing is undergoing a transition period, the declining growth rate is naturally a normal phenomenon. In accordance with this statement, the corresponding inventory problem is not in the production and sales volume, but in the degree of transformation. For instance, the lack of transformation in joint venture manufacturing and the uneven development of autonomous vehicles have brought considerable pressure on the manufacture of domestic automobiles. Although the joint venture also came up with the corresponding joint venture independent products, but in order to truly withstand the test of the market, it is by no means casually put a name, you can cope with changes in the domestic market. It can even be said that when the joint venture products are popular, these products can not see the problem. Once they are affected by excess capacity, it is clear that these products will first become scapegoats. As for the problem of uneven manufacturing, although there are many products that can enter the overseas market, due to the fact that the technology of some companies is still difficult to meet the needs and standards of the market, and the reasons for the large contrast between the urban and rural markets, the car The issue of such a large inventory of products is also evident.

Domestic car excess pressure is more reflected in the international market

In addition, we also need to see that if we have such a large automobile production capacity in China, if our auto exports cannot keep up, we will naturally have a huge problem with the backlog of auto products. Everyone knows that it is because of their high proportion of exports that multinational car companies are able to control the sales trends and trends of international markets to a large extent. This is not only reflected in the corresponding export aspects, but also in the lead of manufacturing technology and models. In other words, the question of whether domestic cars have overcapacity will depend largely on the extent of domestic auto exports in the future.

Objectively speaking, domestic auto exports have shown a very good upward trend in comparison with the decline in domestic growth. Taking 2011 as an example, it not only created a new high in automobile exports but also exceeded the proportion of passenger vehicles for the first time in commercial vehicles. In this way, naturally, the industry will have more expectations for domestic auto exports. However, it must also be realized that the issue of the simplification of domestic auto exports remains obvious. Not only does exporting companies concentrate more on the scope of autonomous vehicles, but the corresponding international markets also concentrate more on developing country markets, which gives export choices and overall expansion, and brings great uncertainty. In other words, in terms of the comparison of the profits of imports and exports, although the amount of domestic exports is higher than the amount of imports, the total profit is much lower than that of imported cars. Such a deficit will naturally indicate that we take the car. The road to export is still a long way!

The problem of overcapacity has always been "old-fashioned," and naturally it is because the inventory problem has not been clearly resolved, and at the same time, various new problems have emerged, and it is easy to worry about overcapacity. It can be said that in the face of these potential pressures, the domestic automobile sales market not only needs to solve the problem of reasonable market distribution, but also needs to solve the follow-up competition issues with the BRIC countries. This will not cause domestic cars to fall into the civil war. And the results of the foreign warfare amateur." If these problems are not solved well, excess capacity will itself be tied to the domestic manufacturing industry. The pace of natural development will be imagined.