After China's auto market "Jianghu": Four "March" and many masters, who is the master?

"The general trend of the world, long-term cooperation, long-term cooperation will be divided" is the first sentence of the first time of the Three Kingdoms. It is also appropriate to describe China's auto aftermarket. Since China’s first automobile was put into production in 1956, the industry has undergone several stages of development and precipitation. The automotive aftermarket is gradually becoming the focus of the pursuit of power capital, but the excessive fragmentation of the million B-side plus local princes. Although the automotive aftermarket has experienced a long-term trend, it is still struggling. But whether it is integration or integration, it is a general trend and it is fundamental.

— Rivers and lakes —

“Some people have rivers and lakes.” Although many martial arts novels are not directly stated, the content is expounding this principle. China’s automobile rear market is also a river and lakes. Where there are rivers and lakes, there are stories, there are martial arts, and there are those grudges. Resentment and everything is not wrong.

This article is the author's discussion from the perspective of the rivers and lakes and the martial arts in the automotive aftermarket. From the review of the 186th document issued by the Ministry of Transport this year, the postmarket as a whole has made some progress and improvements. Although the author is also a victim of market progress, it cannot be denied that the research and development of the underlying data and information systems has been undeniable. Application, practitioners are more open and pragmatic, policies are released one by one, and the level of capital entry (basically no single 50 million, we will know after the actual situation is in place). "The status of the field has become a topic that cannot be ignored in the layout of capital predators (eat, wear, live, and carry out several major categories, and the auto aftermarket belongs to the "market" sector). After all, it is known as the "trillion-dollar market", otherwise the author would Will become the fish on the board.

- The story of rivers and lakes -

Similar to all rivers and lakes competing for sites, cheats, treasures, and status, the main lines of post-market competition are: standardizing and certifying the control of auto parts production companies and their products, and at the same time making straight chain efficient after-production of auto parts. In order to build an auto parts supply chain with a relatively large scale and monopoly status, if this is the case, the world should be half available. Looking into the future, if the problem of auto parts supply chain is completely solved, the auto repair chain with brand scale operation can achieve the other half of the world, thus providing true cross-regional, standardized and high-quality maintenance services for China’s hundreds of millions of vehicle owners.

However, the author has a suspense for the future: is the upstream auto parts supply chain and the downstream auto repair chain two "kings" or "kings"? Or many years are the princes separatist? The answer can only be answered by the market later. The essence of the dispute over the throne is to revolve around the disputes over the control of the industrial chain in the three major areas of auto parts production-distribution-consumption. It is also a dispute between the authorization system and the sect of the post-independence market. The enlargement is also the manufacturing of China and overseas manufacturing. There is no smoke in the war between the nations. In this regard, we only discuss the story of the rivers and lakes, and others do not discuss it.

The main categories of post-market martial arts are: auto parts production companies, auto parts supply chain companies, auto repair chain companies, and vehicle manufacturers. The main top players are: financial institutions, insurance companies, governments, and BAT. There is also a group of mass players - post-market practitioners, but also a force that can not be ignored, after all, water can carry a boat, but also overturned, especially the social division of labor system based on platform + personal trends, the Internet + flourishes Let the author have more room to imagine this (financial institutions and insurance companies in the eyes of the author is a class of people, because of the industry discussion so separate).

- Time conditions -

The "early weather, geographical advantage, and human harmony" are the preconditions for success, resulting from the military's summary of countless wars. However, in terms of the “day of the day” in the post-market business warfare, the author believes that the Chinese auto after-market has not yet fully had the best weather conditions. The reasons are as follows:

1, the average age is still less than 5 years;

2. Each indicator of per capita vehicles lags far behind the developed countries;

3. The fragmentation pattern of each segment of the entire industry chain has formed a foundation;

4. China's unique market mechanism and commercial culture atmosphere;

5. The field of industrial breakthroughs in China, the war is in the world;

6. The logical relationship between volume and basic commercial laws has been formed in the market landscape.

Based on the above six points of analysis, if you want to control the industrial chain in a short period of time through a certain amount of capital or the Internet, it is basically difficult to achieve, including through the top-down promotion of the policy completely, it will be more difficult.

The business battle in the auto market must be a multidimensional and multidimensional war. To participate in this feast, although the “time of day” is not yet fully equipped with the best conditions, the industrial layout is a matter of no delay. The status quo of “Heaven” determines that the development pace of post-market projects must be harmonized with the market, otherwise it is likely to face failure.

— Martial Insights —

Auto parts production companies - auto parts production companies in the world are trillions of dollars in the market's big business, the world's top 100 parts list the latest data show that China has five companies on the list, but also the best historical results, of which the best ranking is the first 14 people. At the same time, from the perspective of market share, the Chinese market accounts for 40% of the global market share, which also shows the importance of the Chinese market. However, the disadvantages of Chinese companies are also obvious. The performance of the products is still based on foundry or low-end products.

Auto parts production companies are facing typical global wars, and many competitors are hundred-year enterprises. Therefore, the large-scale development of China's auto industry also relies on the scientific research personnel to make more breakthroughs in raw materials and sophisticated technology as soon as possible. This martial arts integration is typical of the integration of heavy capital and heavy technology through continuous innovation of products.

Auto Parts Supply Chain Companies - This martial arts includes auto parts dealers in auto parts circulation and auto dealers in all types of wholesalers and retailers, including various types of warehousing, packaging, logistics, distribution companies, and various kinds of vertical development. Single-category supply chain and auto parts chain. The author once was also an auto dealer who had been operating in Guangzhou for more than ten years. Finally, auto parts distributors were classified as auto parts supply chain companies in this article and they were also ironic. This school is a relatively concentrated industrial area with scattered, chaotic, and poor. This type of innovation platform currently has few companies with a real turnover of more than 1.5 billion yuan. Traditional businesses with businesses of this magnitude have demonstrated that the innovation platform model is still difficult for industry breakthrough exploration. :

Auto dealers will not be completely destroyed in the next decade, but the market share contraction and decline is the fastest, the main bottlenecks are: authorized corporate industrial barriers, business compliance issues and some auto parts dealers do not cooperate, not open Mentality.

The success rate of fully self-built online and offline auto supply chain platforms for all product categories is extremely low, and vertical supply chains with single product categories and platforms with strong supply chain integration capabilities will gradually increase, especially vertical supply chains with upstream advantageous resources. The platform has significant advantages in market competition due to its deep interests binding with upstream auto parts manufacturing companies.

Pure Internet auto parts trading platforms that do not have strong resource endorsements should already have few opportunities. This track has become a master. The threshold for forced entry will also be high. The main reason is that the advancement of Internet technologies, especially cloud technologies, has led to more and more choices of IT solutions for SMEs, and the cost has become lower and lower. However, the establishment of an online platform with a full industry structure is still a short board. The main bottleneck is that the integration of high-end industrial talents and capital has certain restrictions.

The warehousing and logistics functions of auto parts supply chain companies are recommended to be completed through cooperation or contracting. The author believes that industry professionals must always understand a simple truth: We are doing the automotive industry, not the warehousing, logistics, IT and other industries, and automotive-related services are the core. Self-built warehousing, logistics is not as good as taking time and effort to do customer service. Although warehousing and logistics are unique in the auto parts industry, it is a different industry from the auto industry. Enterprises with more than 10 billion yuan in assets can try to establish a warehouse in the country. Innovating a company to build a large number of warehouses or constructing a logistics system is a matter of luck. The author believes that it may only be a matter of time before the innovation platform takes a lot of money to invest in warehousing, inventory, and logistics.

The auto parts chain is the direction that some platforms and companies are working on, but I believe that auto parts chain only undertakes the transition function in the process of industrial integration and the cycle should still be 3-5 years. After the online traffic of auto repair companies reaches 80%, the main functions of auto parts chain must transition to the extension of regional service innovation platform, otherwise it will be difficult to get out of the fate of traditional auto parts dealers.

There is still a big problem with the innovation platform operating auto parts chain, which is to compete with the existing more than 400,000 traditional auto parts dealers. The author suggests that the strategic planning of innovative projects can start from the offline auto parts chain, and it is very important to set up a win-win mechanism with traditional auto parts dealers.

In terms of the circulation of auto parts products, the marketing concept of how to sell products has been more converted into the marketing concept of “product + service”, which has become a trend.

The original auto parts dealers go from here, the author suggested the following:

Adhere to sound management, abandon all non-profit projects and try to embrace high-quality innovation platforms in phases;

The expansion of the scale must ensure sustainability, ensure a reasonable ratio of inventory, accounts receivable and turnover, and ensure a virtuous circle of business operations;

Profits are diversified to invest in higher-margin, more reliable projects outside the industry, with more planning for families;

Compliance or not is always the greatest risk to the business. It will operate in compliance with regulations as soon as possible. If necessary, the business model and business structure must be adjusted as soon as possible;

The opportunity to realise the realization of industrial assets should be well grasped, and serve the users with care;

The access threshold for auto parts supply chain companies will continue to increase in the order of 10 million. Currently, the market has not yet emerged as a climate-changing enterprise.

The countermeasures of authorizing the market to face policy constraints will also affect the growth and expansion of auto parts supply chain companies, and the influence of policy formulation will gradually increase.

Once again, the auto parts distributors are urged to lay their hands on innovation and accept innovation. With the attitude of openness, cooperation, and win-win situation, the possibility of cohesion to become the backbone of industrial change still exists.

Auto repair chain companies - The current status of the auto repair chain industry is no longer confusing, casually asking some old drivers to have unpleasant experiences in car repair. But overall, the changes in the auto repair business over the past few years have been particularly large. No matter if the business environment, business philosophy, regional cooperation, supply chain exploration, team management, etc. are all continuing to make rapid progress. The reform and innovation of auto repair companies have always been at the forefront of auto parts supply chain companies. This point is worthy of recognition and is worth learning from auto parts supply chain practitioners.

There are numerous articles on the analysis of auto repair companies in the future, such as improving the management level, improving the quality of management, and increasing profits. This article is no longer exhaustive. The author mainly discusses several points from the perspective of large-scale development of the chain:

How much can a auto repair chain do in China? This is not known because the super chain of management has the hard conditions of “time, place, and people”. Is the cost of integrating regional privilege controllable? Are the risks of regional lords controllable? The management of the princes and the distribution of benefits still require everyone to constantly explore and try.

Auto repair chain platform companies are basically a set of models or a set of concepts to fight the world, and now the world is the status quo of hundreds of families, a hundred flowers, a set of models or concepts in some areas of land and integration of dissatisfaction, how to deal with?

The ultimate asset must be securitized, or combined with financial instruments such as finance and financial leasing, in order to reflect higher value. Nowadays, the majority of auto repair companies operate in lease mode. The accumulation of asset management and business in the industrial park is the main direction for the future, but there is no good model in the country. The author communicated with some of the industrial estates. Most of the real estate professionals in the industry could not find directions and acted too conservatively. I believe that the real estate resources outside the industry may be faster than the industry's real estate resources to break through the bottleneck of industrial real estate, let us wait and see. Capital is always to be priced, and auto repair assets that cannot be priced by capital are worthless.

The future of the auto repair chain is too much unknown. The author's direct experience is that the integration road of the auto repair industry may take longer than we thought. The next 3-5 years should not be able to complete the integration, so it should be before 2020. The golden age of the development of the princes in various places may be the last window period for the rapid development of princes;

As the local princes are developing, they must keep in mind: Do not chain for the chain. All expansion is driven by the core of commercial value: profit-oriented development. Profitability is more important than scale.

The vehicle manufacturing enterprise (hereinafter referred to as "the main engine factory") --- The main engine factory is the core enterprise of the industrial chain, and is also the core enterprise of the auto parts supply chain. Although this advantage is acquired by the auto parts production enterprises in the global mergers and acquisitions, Internet construction, and new energy sources. There are many uncertainties caused by vehicle manufacturers, but at this stage, all the reforms and innovations that are being carried out in China's automotive aftermarket, and its changed interest distribution system, all want to break through the authorization system of the main engine plant. "Playing tyrants in the field", the main engine factory is the largest local tyrant. The OEMs are also changing, but are very cautious. They are mainly based on considerations of balancing short-term and long-term interests, making it hardest for them to reform their lives.

The mainstream attitude of the OEM in the post-independence market is: through the original self-construction after-sales system as the main force, to obtain more incremental shares, the dominant ideology is to defend the attack. Most OEMs are still trying their attitudes toward independent sales, and they are not really able to make bold decisions and throw off their arms. As the core enterprise of the industry, the main engine factory must not be underestimated in its strength and influence. It mainly focuses on the following points:

The selection of innovative project teams by OEMs is critical, especially for the selection of team leader. The soul of the team is one of the key factors for the success of an independent aftermarket. Selecting the leader and establishing a mature and reliable team is a success. basis.

The system of the main engine plant involves state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, foreign funds, and military enterprises. Major decisions involve the approval of ministries and commissions and local government departments. How to design long-term operations for reform and innovation within the system is crucial.

In the course of operation, the sharing and collaboration of the overall resources and innovative projects of the host plant is the key to ensure the successful operation of the project in the early stages. It must be inclusive of innovation, and it is necessary to look at the current issues with a development perspective. If innovation departments are opposed to traditional sectors, innovation projects are difficult to develop effectively.

Innovation projects must be able to play the advantages of the main engine plant, and also be in harmony with the post-independence market. Having these two points is fundamental to the success of an independent after-sales project.

The status of independent after-sale in China’s auto aftermarket is a foregone conclusion. The authorized market will not disappear because of the development of the independent market. At this stage, the authorized market will use its own market position to actively establish a dialogue with the independent after-sales market to create a harmonious relationship. Symbiotic situation and common interest body. If the advantage of the OEM is to suppress the independent after-sales market, it will bring a bad experience to the owners, and ultimately it will be the host plant itself.

- "Master" insights -

Financial institutions - no matter what stage of the future development of the automotive market, capital will continue to strengthen the depth of intervention, the final chain of the financial chain of the industrial chain will be reduced to capital control, this no need to discuss, the author elaborates some of the personal experience of capital:

Numerous cases in the automotive industry, especially in the automotive aftermarket, have proven that people and teams investing in practical things in the industry are more reliable than those who believe capital is trustworthy but do not understand the industry. In the past three years, the majority of innovation platforms in the automotive market have fallen. We do not understand the capital’s kinship of the industry at all, but because we have access to the capital’s personal connections, we believe that there will be more industrial hardworking teams and companies that will receive more capital’s favor and recognition, even though there are still Many projects are purely TO capital.

The reduction in speculative capital and the increase in industrial capital are good for the industry as a whole and can ease the investment success rate caused by the ignorance of capital on the industry. However, industrial capital will have an impact on the innovation boundary of the project. The layout of industrial capital is based on consideration of its own original industry and will limit the development of innovative projects.

The integration and integration of industries as a whole is the best combination of production and financial integration. Some projects may be suitable for capital-based and industry-assisted integration. Other projects are suitable for industry-based, capital-assisted integration, and pure capital or industry integration. In fact, it is very passive and at the same time costly. The overall integration of production and financial integration is relatively efficient and costly. At the same time, the integrated competitive advantage will also be highlighted.

Insurance companies - mainly car insurance companies, typical of the Diamond Queen of the post-market. Each year spent hundreds of billions of dollars in the aftermarket, and in particular, the top three claims for PICC, Ping An and the Pacific are no less than 100 billion yuan.

Almost all insurance companies, like OEMs, have voluntarily established innovative project departments in the post-individual market. Each insurance company has a different entry point but has the same goal: to reduce claims costs, reduce false claims, and increase customer satisfaction so as to continue renewal.

The author's opinion on the insurance company is basically the same as that of the main engine factory. Please refer to the point of view of the main engine manufacturer for details. The difference between insurance companies and OEMs is that they are more open, but the threshold for cooperation is higher, and there are more business requirements for connecting with insurance companies' internal organizations.

BAT – On Internet companies such as BAT, the author thinks that at this stage, it is mainly interested in financial traffic and C-end owners, but the layout of the industry at this stage is mainly at the B-side. BAT's layout in the post-market market is not satisfactory, but it cannot underestimate the impact of the Internet on the industry.

Mass players - the largest imagination and variables of the post market, for the following reasons:

1. C-end owner pursues personalized service;

2. The rejuvenation of post-market groups is destined to pursue more free work space;

3. The platform + personal model has been successfully modeled in more fields such as travel;

4. The integration of online key factors and offline fragmentation resources may be more suitable for the future development of the industry;

5. There are more top talents still in the state of Qianlong in Yuanyuan.