May manufacturing PMI was 50.4% significantly lower than expected

In May, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.4%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The economic growth rate showed a certain degree of decline. However, the index remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that the economic growth momentum has not changed.

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 50.4% in May, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The economic growth rate showed a certain degree of decline. However, the index remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that the economic growth momentum has not changed. The short-term decline in the current economic growth does not mean that the Chinese economy has entered a new recession phase. While paying attention to the deceleration of economic growth, we must also look to the good side of economic development.

From the 11 sub-indexes, compared with the previous month, except for the increase in the finished goods inventory index, the other indices have declined to varying degrees. Among them, the purchase price index fell the most, reaching 10 percentage points; the production index, new order index and backlog order index fell more than 4 percentage points; the employee index and supplier delivery time index fell less, within 1 percentage point.

In terms of different industries, the metal products industry, food and wine beverage refined tea manufacturing industry, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing industry, textile and apparel industry, petroleum processing and coking industry and other 10 industries are higher than 50%, and the remaining 11 industries are lower than 50%. From the perspective of business size, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%; small-scale enterprises are lower than 50%.

According to the investigation of manufacturing purchasing managers in May, Zhang Liqun, a contributing analyst, said: “The PMI index fell sharply in May, which is in line with the trend of economic growth rate decline. The new orders index fell sharply, indicating the start of future business start-ups. The rate may be further reduced, and the economic growth rate may continue to fall.At present, macroeconomic policies are already undergoing targeted pre-adjustments and fine-tuning, and in particular, more measures have been introduced in the area of ​​stable investment. Affected by this, it is expected that the economic downturn will tend to be stable. ."

The new orders index fell below 50%. The new orders index for the month was 49.8%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, the metal products industry, food and wine beverage refined tea manufacturing, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing and petroleum processing and coking industries are higher than 50% in 11 industries; special equipment manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, automotive Less than 50% of the 10 industries in manufacturing and railway ship aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing industries. From a regional perspective, the eastern and northeast regions are higher than 50%; the central and western regions are below 50%. From the perspective of business size, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%; small and medium-sized enterprises are lower than 50%.

The production index has a clear callback. The production index for the month was 52.9%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the metal products industry, food and wine beverages refined tea manufacturing industry, petroleum processing and coking industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries are higher than 50% in 14 industries; automotive manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing and railway ships 7 industries such as aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing industry are below 50%. From a regional perspective, the eastern, western and northeast regions are more than 50%; the central regions are less than 50%. In terms of the size of the company, large and medium-sized companies are more than 50%; small and micro-enterprises are less than 50%.

Both the new export order index and the import index fell. The new export order index this month was 50.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the metal products industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, textile and clothing industry, general equipment manufacturing and automobile manufacturing industries are higher than 50% in 10 industries; wood processing and furniture manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry , special equipment manufacturing and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries, such as 11 industries below 50%. From the regional perspective, the central, western, and northeast regions are higher than 50%; the eastern regions are lower than 50%. From the perspective of the size of the company, medium and small micro enterprises are higher than 50%; large enterprises are lower than 50%.

The import index for the month was 48.1%, down by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry point of view, food and wine beverages are more than 50% in five industries such as refined tea manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking, and metal products; chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, and chemical fiber 16 industries such as rubber and plastic products industry are below 50%.

The index of finished goods inventory has risen. The index of finished goods inventories this month was 52.2%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, the food and wine beverages refined tea manufacturing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and textile industries are higher than 50% in 13 industries; And furniture manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry and railway ship aerospace transportation equipment manufacturing industry are located in 5 industries; automotive manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry, computer communications and electronic equipment and instruments Instrument manufacturing industry and textile and apparel industry are lower than 50% in 5 industries.

The purchase price index fell sharply. The purchase price index for this month was 44.8%, a decrease of 10.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, tobacco industry, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and food and wine beverages and refined tea manufacturing are higher than 50% in 6 industries; petroleum processing and coking, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products , ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 15 industries less than 50%.