During this period of time, a hot topic in the engine industry and even in the heavy truck industry is whether the implementation of the National IV emission standards will be postponed. Although the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the implementation date of the National IV as early as the end of 2010, taking into account the previous few In the past, we have learned from the past that there are no factors such as the status quo of the State IV oil or even the State III oil that cannot be widely supplied, the addition of urea, and the difficulties in supervision. Many companies can also understand the mentality of whether State IV can implement doubts on schedule. The grapevine is flying At the end of July 2011, Mr. Li, who was working for a construction machinery company in Beijing and responsible for product scheduling, called the reporter to inquire about the implementation time of the State IV: “The information received by the colleague responsible for the announcement at the factory shows that the State IV may have to postpone implementation. The Ministry of Environmental Protection has said that it will be implemented on schedule, but I am concerned that the implementation of State III in 2008 will repeat itself, that is, the demand for vehicle emissions will be upgraded but there will be no qualified oil supply. I also asked the government department but the other party did not give us a reply. I also heard that the Zhongji Center has not been audited for 2 months of the vehicle's announcement, and I do not know what the situation is. Now I just ask for more information and report all kinds of news to the leaders." As there is no official, clear reply, in the field of heavy-duty diesel engines, there is no shortage of guesses and gossips. "The news we have now received is that the Ministry of Environmental Protection has stated that it will implement the plan on schedule. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's attitude is that the proposal is postponed. It is said that it was postponed to July 1, 2013. Not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called the person in charge of the car factory to hold a meeting and it was said that I mentioned this time, but it only formed an opinion and I would report it to the State Council. I don't know whether this news is exact or not," said Mr. Zhang, the head of a major engine company. "We speculate that it will be implemented on schedule. Since China has already committed itself to the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction at the international level, plus the delay in the implementation time of the overpass IV before, if we postpone it again, it will damage our country's international image. We just don't know how to implement it at that time." (Including the scope of implementation, that is, the national implementation of a unified or gradual progress in the sub-region), how relevant the supervision of the relevant departments, but also to consider the market demand, if implemented on schedule, but no user to buy the country IV products how to do? Is not next year in January From the 1st onwards, all State III vehicles are not allowed to use licenses. I think that if sales are implemented on schedule, sales will drop by at least 20%,†said Mr. Shen, a relevant person in charge of an oil pump nozzle company in Beijing. Mr. Liu, the relevant person in charge of Shangchai, sums up: “In short, how to implement the State IV is nothing more than three conditions: First, strict and timely implementation across the country; second, postponement of implementation; third, implementation in different regions.†For these kinds of speculations, some companies are indifferent. “We didn’t receive any time to implement a clear notice of State IV, nor do we care about this matter. Until now, State III diesel has not been provided, and it is not about implementing State IV. Even if it is implemented on time, everyone will face the same situation. It's a big deal for everyone to collapse together.†Mr. Wang, who is responsible for the marketing of a vehicle company, has a slight negative feeling. Prepare for at least two months The reason why companies gather information quickly is to set aside sufficient time for scheduling and preparing goods. “As a manufacturing company, this year's production plan is to be formulated at the beginning of the year, and the plan must be adjusted according to the production and sales conditions during the middle of the year. We must make a definite delay or not to adjust existing engine inventory and purchase engines that meet the standards. This procurement plan should be issued at least 1 to 2 months in advance. Because companies are buying in bulk, it takes time to plan for engine manufacturers to produce products.†Mr. Li introduced to reporters: “Our company is generally two ahead of schedule. In the month plan, I am writing a production plan report. At present, our company's products have only one type of vehicle using the National III engine, and other products are equipped with the National IV engine. In case the implementation of the National IV extension, we will be next year. There was no situation where the product could be sold, so it was important for us to know if it was delayed." Through interviews, the reporter learned that many companies are pessimistic about the implementation of State IV due to the inadequate implementation of State III and the inadequate supporting measures of State IV. Many companies believe that even if implemented on schedule, the market's demand for China IV products will not necessarily increase. Therefore, manufacturers are reluctant to reserve and arrange their IV products (especially National IV trucks). However, to be on the safe side, whether or not it can be implemented on schedule, the preparations to do this have to be done. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle said: “We are preparing for products, and we have already announced the products of the State IV. There are still some products that are making announcements. The implementation of the announcement on schedule has little impact, because the Ministry of Environmental Protection gave the end of 2010 The notification of the implementation of State IV on January 1, 2012, whether or not the extension is delayed, manufacturers should apply for an announcement at this point in time. The delay or not affects the stocking arrangement of the automaker, parts manufacturers, and distributors. We hope that Allows the company to set aside two months of preparation time." “At present, we are preparing to develop and publish the products of the State IV. As for the production, because there are some places in the country that require the National IV prototype, we will also produce small-volume national IV engines. There will not be much large quantities of the Chinese IV engine market next year. Say good to say." Deutz FAW Dashii related parties said. "Now all our production preparations are based on the implementation of January 1 next year. In terms of production scheduling, everyone is basically producing according to orders. With respect to passenger cars, several cities have begun to implement State IV in advance. According to their plans to arrange production. Trucks, now mainly for the host plant to provide matching prototype." Yuchai said. Xichai's National IV engine is mainly reserved for passenger cars: “We have national IV products, and we also have matching resources. If an automaker needs a national IV engine, we can provide it. At present, we have some reserves of national IV engines. It is for passenger cars and has not yet stored the National IV engine for trucks." “The preparations companies need to make include adjusting market strategies, reducing production costs, and resolving the pressure of after-sales service brought by emission upgrades. The repair cost of China IV engines is definitely increasing. Once the injectors are damaged, service stations are incapable. Repairs can only be replaced directly with new ones, and the replaced old parts can only be re-used through remanufacturing. As for the price of fuel injectors, it was 1800 yuan each, which is now reduced to 1,200 yuan, and it will be replaced ( 6 injectors) is more than 7000 yuan. The user can accept such a high repair price is also a problem.†Wu Jian, director of the oil pump Yuzu Institute Zhu Jianming told reporters. The IV industry chain is not yet mature “The current situation is that delayed implementation will have little impact on the company, and implementation on schedule will have a great impact because of insufficient production capacity for parts such as post-processing. Upgraded country IV appears to be affecting the entire vehicle factory. In fact, it is transmitted through the industrial chain. It will still be reflected in key components," said Mr. Li. “At present, the production capacity of China's high-pressure common rail system is almost zero. To fully prepare for it, at least until the end of next year, it is also a question of when industrialization can be realized. Before a high-pressure common rail system is put into production, it is necessary to do a series of tests, and then We can put small batches on the market, and then mass production. Now many high pressure common rail production companies in China have not finished the test or have just started to do experiments, and these experiments took a year and a half to two years to complete.We are also doing The engine performance test. The capacity of the post-processing system is slightly better than that of the high-pressure common-rail system. Some domestic post-processing system manufacturers have realized industrialization and have made a certain profit.†Mr. Shen believes: “Even so, according to the current In a market situation in which the demand is not high enough, enterprises do not dare to put on the market rashly.Also, engine companies now say that they have a National IV product, but their high pressure common rail system uses Bosch products, and the price is between 7,000 and 8,000 yuan. Who pays for such high prices?" “Indeed, many domestic common rail system manufacturers are still in the experimental stage. Most of the common rail systems we use are Bosch and Denso. The price of the national high pressure common rail system is between 4000 and 5,000 yuan. Because there is no mass production of the common rail system, the price is still relatively vague.†Mr. Liu said: “We are not worried about the production capacity of the Chinese IV engine. We are concerned about two aspects: First, the entire industry chain supporting issues, especially vehicles in the west How to add urea in remote areas; secondly, even if the implementation of State IV is delayed and the supply of supporting parts is sufficient, if there is no demand in the market, the produced China IV engines will not necessarily come in handy. That is, we are not optimistic about the future market. China IV engine demand." Zhu Jianming also believes that the main contradiction in implementing State IV is in the market rather than in technology. "The high pressure common rail system used by the State III and the high pressure common rail system used by the State IV are the same platform, except that the injection pressure of the State IV is slightly higher, and there is no essential difference between them. The high pressure common rail system needs a step up, and currently large domestic companies basically have the technical capability to upgrade to the National IV. Although the domestic high pressure common rail system cannot be supplied in bulk, engine companies can solve this problem through global procurement. However, the use of imported high pressure common rail system will increase the production cost of the manufacturers and the user's use cost will increase accordingly. Therefore, the main contradiction of upgrading to the National IV is in the market." Zhu Jianming stated that another difficulty in implementing State IV is the SCR system. Like high-pressure common rail systems, most engine companies use imported SCR systems. The price of this system is relatively high, and the profits of foreign SCR system manufacturers are even higher than The high-pressure common rail system production companies have even higher profits. “Fortunately, the technical difficulty of the SCR system is much lower than that of the common rail system, and the localization process will be slightly faster. At present, Wuxi Kailong mainly produces urea injection devices, and Wuxi Weifu Lida produces catalysts, purifiers, and SCR systems. The current output of the processing system manufacturers is still small, and the technology needs to be improved. At the same time, this market has not yet started. In the short term, the engine plant is still using foreign post-processing systems.†Zhu Jianming said: “Common-rail system technology is more difficult, domestically The process will be slower, but I think that the mass production of the domestic common rail system is only a matter of time. This time is only 2 to 3 years." 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