China Wind Power Industry Automation Market Development Trend Interpretation

Current problems faced by the domestic wind power industry

At present, there is a large gap in China's wind turbines with independent intellectual property rights, and the core technologies for wind turbine manufacturing are still not available at home. In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance are studying and formulating plans to support the localization of complete machines and components for wind turbines, or will provide financial support for the manufacture of wind turbine generators and components with independent intellectual property rights.

At present, from the perspective of the development level of wind power equipment in China, although the mass production capacity of 600 kW and 750 kW wind power generators is already available, some wind power equipment manufacturers in China still remain at the design and manufacturing level of low and medium end equipment. Due to the lack of core technologies, China's currently mass-produced electrical equipment is produced by developed countries 10 years ago.

In the research and development of high-end wind turbine products, although some enterprises in China have entered the megawatt design and manufacturing field, due to the lack of field operation inspection (the quality of the equipment is subject to approximately 20 years of field operation assessment), the promotion of prototypes has been promoted. There are still some difficulties.

The domestic wind power equipment market is very broad, but due to the weak design capability of domestic enterprises, most of the high-end equipment technologies are in the hands of foreign parties, resulting in monopoly of most domestic markets by imported equipment. With the implementation of China's energy development strategy, the market for wind power equipment has been expanding year by year. In the “Long-Term Development Plan for Wind Power Generation” formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, it is clearly stated that by the end of 2010, the total installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 4 million kW; by the end of 2015, the total installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 10 million kW; by 2020, At the end of the year, the total installed capacity of wind power in China reached 20 million kW.

The large-scale development of wind power provides a broad market space for the development of wind power equipment manufacturing. How to realize the localization of wind power equipment has become an urgent matter for China to accelerate the development of the wind power industry.

It is reported that the government will give corresponding policy support to the development of the wind power equipment industry. At present, due to the particularity of the wind power equipment industry itself, the support for its entire machine or its parts and components is heavy and the relevant departments are still under review.

Because of the long cycle and high risks of investment in the wind power industry, experts believe that the state should give strong support in the autonomy of wind power equipment. For example, heads should promote the development of wind power equipment industry in terms of laws and regulations, testing and certification.

At present, the Ministry of Science and Technology has included the industrialization of wind power equipment in the key supporting projects of the "Guidelines for Selected Key Projects for Technological Innovations in SMEs in 2007". Relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Science and Technology stated that the country will support the industrialization of large and medium-sized wind turbines through loans and interest subsidies.

Wind power automation product business model

1. Basic business model If automation product suppliers want to promote their products to the wind power market, a basic business model is basically a model for automating wind turbines for wind turbine generator manufacturers. For controller products, servo products and SCADA products, because of their high technical content, users are not easy to master, and they need to be closely integrated with wind power and automation knowledge. Therefore, many wind turbine generator manufacturers do not have such products. System development capabilities require the support and assistance of system integrators. Current system integrators for controllers, servos, and SCADA products mainly include foreign companies such as GH, Averdon, and Vensys, as well as domestic Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Electrical Engineering and Goldwind Technologies. In addition, the selection and design of automation product selection and procurement of many foreign wind turbine suppliers are completed abroad, such as Dewind, Repower, and Vestas.

With the small and powerful technical capacity of domestic wind turbine generator suppliers, they gradually mastered the system integration of controllers and servos, and many overseas purchases will also be transferred to China.

2. According to the classification of different automation products, the main automation product suppliers list the list of major automation product suppliers in the wind power industry as shown in Table 1.

3. Business model development trend At present, wind turbine generator equipment suppliers play a decisive role in the selection of automation products. Wind farm investment and management personnel only require stable operation of wind power generation equipment, which has little influence on automation brands. However, it is believed that as the small-scale competition in the wind power equipment market intensifies, wind farm investment and management personnel will have greater influence on the automation products used in wind power equipment.

Wind power automation market capacity and growth forecasts There are many types of automation products used in wind turbine installations, and in terms of amount, automation products account for the cost of the entire wind turbine assembly equipment.

We use 1.5 MW wind turbines as an example to illustrate the approximate ratio of various automation products in the cost of their wind turbines.

According to Table 2, we can see that generators, gearboxes, converters, and servo products account for a large proportion of wind turbine equipment costs.

Our estimate for the 2008 wind power market automation products is estimated at RMB 5 billion (including controllers, servos, gearboxes, converters, low-voltage electrical appliances, and SCADA systems, excluding generators).

1. The capacity and growth of the controller market determine that the controller capacity of the wind power market in 2008 was RMB 649 million, an increase of 93.7% compared to 2007, and almost doubled.

The PC-based control scheme is still the mainstream configuration. It is widely used in 800kW class units and 800kW to 2MW class units.

Followed by a dedicated controller, the application of more than 800kW more units. The PLC solution is a new program developed in recent years. It is currently used in applications up to 800 kW, and applications at 800 kW and above are still in the experimental phase.

Our estimate of the controller market capacity for 2007-2011 is shown in Table 3. With regard to the growth trend of memory controllers, we believe that PC-based control methods will continue to be the mainstream choice for the next few years, and will grow in tandem with the growth of the wind power market, and once the PLC is on a MW-class fan Successful application, due to its stable performance and relatively low cost, will achieve rapid growth. Dedicated controllers, due to their high cost and lack of development, will slow down gradually.

2. Mechanical transmission in the wind power market capacity and growth judgment for the mechanical transmission products for the wind power industry - speed increase gear box is a key component in the wind turbine, its price is more expensive, a megawatt level double-fed wind generator, The price of gearboxes with speed increase is more than RMB 1 million. In 2008, the growth rate of the wind power industry's gearbox market was around 210 million yuan, an increase of 100% over 2007.

From 2007 to 2011, the market capacity of mechanical transmission in the wind power industry is shown in Table 4.

However, as we mentioned earlier, speed increasing gearboxes are mainly used for variable-speed doubly-fed wind turbines. This type of turbines developed very rapidly in previous years, thus driving the rapid development of the gearbox market.

However, we expect that as more and more wind turbine manufacturers pay attention to VSCF wind turbines due to cost considerations, because they use a direct drive, they do not need to install a gear box, so the VSCF Wind turbines will gradually become the mainstream of the market.

So in the coming years, we predict that the growth rate of gearboxes will be lower than the average growth rate of wind power equipment. However, the variable-speed doubly-fed wind turbines will not disappear immediately. For a long time, both will coexist.

3. The market capacity and growth of converters determine that the converter unit price is also more expensive in wind turbines. The price of a full-power converter used in a 1.5MW variable speed constant frequency wind turbine is also in the range of 800,000 to 1 million yuan. . In 2008, the market capacity of converters for the wind power industry was 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 96% from 2007, and almost doubled its growth.

The market capacity of converters in the wind power industry is shown in Table 5.

However, the converter market is a relatively competitive product in the wind power industry automation products. In addition to some well-known international suppliers such as ABB and Siemens, many companies in China also have preliminary R&D, production, and manufacturing capabilities for converters. The price is much cheaper than foreign brands.

Therefore, we believe that the market price of converters will decline in the next few years, and its overall market growth rate will be slightly lower than the growth rate of the wind power industry itself. Despite this, by 2011, its market capacity will still reach a market size of 7.4 billion yuan.

4. The servo product market capacity and growth judged that the single product amount of the servo product was relatively small compared to other automation products. In 2008, the market size of the wind power industry was approximately RMB 320 million, which was 100% more than that of 2007, and achieved doubled growth.

The capacity and growth of the servo market in the wind power industry are shown in Table 6.

The servo system is mainly used in pitch wind turbines. At present, the products developed and produced by various wind turbine suppliers are based on pitch systems. The early fixed-gated stall wind turbines were rarely produced.

Therefore, we can think that the development speed of wind power itself and servo products can match the growth rate of wind power.