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The preliminary macro-environment warming and cold customs statistics show that in November alone, China’s exports exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars, a slight decrease from the same period of last year, and imports were more than 700 billion U.S. dollars, a double-digit decline compared to the same period of last year, with a single monthly surplus reaching Tens of billions of dollars high. China's most recent negative export growth was in June 2001. The slowdown in external demand is considered as one of the factors driving down exports. Taking into account the time lag between export orders and customs settlement, the decline in exports in November was related to negative growth in the economy of China's major trading partners in the second quarter of this year. In the second quarter of this year, Japan’s GDP fell by 0.6% from the previous quarter, and the quarterly ratio in the euro zone also fell by 0.2%.
On December 1, the data released by the National Logistics Information Center showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was only 38.8% in November, setting a new low since the index was established. In addition, the new export orders index dropped dramatically, down 12.4 percentage points from the previous month. If the export growth rates in November and December are all calculated according to negative 2%, then the export growth this year will be about 18%, which is lower than the bottom line of 20%.
The basis for supporting this judgment is that the US’s consumption in the third quarter has already experienced negative growth of 3.7% compared with the previous period, which is lower than market expectations. According to a forecast released by the International Monetary Fund on November 24, the United States, the euro zone, and Japan may experience negative growth of 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.2%. In 2007, these three markets together accounted for 63% of China's total exports (taking into account the re-export factors in Hong Kong).
These data have proven that domestic exports will also be in the process of adjustment in the short term, which also confirms from the side that the recent abrupt shrinkage of the downstream steel demand is indeed an indisputable fact, due to the dramatic changes in the international market economic environment, resulting in export-oriented processing trade Severe shrinkage has directly reduced the consumption of steel products, especially the demand for high-end steel materials for processing trade such as cold plates and coated plates.
From the perspective of adjusting a series of macroeconomic control policies in the near future, the purpose is very clear, that is, efforts must be made to maintain stable and rapid economic development. It can be seen from past government work reports that the steady and rapid economic development corresponds to the goal of 8% GDP growth.
In the fourth quarter of this year, the central government has allocated 15 billion yuan to the budget of the central government for the construction of railways, which has enabled the investment in the entire railway industry to increase by 50 billion yuan (including 15 billion yuan), and it will use 1.61 million tons of steel. In terms of expressways, the investment per 100 million yuan in highway construction can provide about 1,800 direct employment opportunities and 2,100 indirect employment opportunities for the society; the average per-kilometer expressway construction will directly consume about 1,000 tons of steel. With regard to civil aviation, the new project with a central government investment of 3 billion yuan will have a total scale of 32.2 billion yuan. The investment will be able to digest and form a certain amount of physical work. It will promote the completion of a terminal area of ​​80,000 square meters, 6 to 8 in a short period of time. The reconstruction or expansion project has basically completed or completed the main project in the near future. The area of ​​the terminal building under construction is about 1 million square meters, requiring 500,000 tons of steel and 10 million tons of cement.
Although it has warmed up in a large macro environment, it still takes a certain amount of time to implement specific steel downstream consumer industries. In addition, steel consumption in major projects is generally directly followed by the bidding procurement of steel plants, and it does not directly follow the market. The path of procurement, in the current case of very large stocks of steel mills, is conducive to accelerating the digestion of existing stocks, but the short-term steel prices have little effect on the specific pull, mainly reflected in the psychological level.
The reduction in output of steel mills was gradually implemented. The output of domestic large and medium-sized steel mills exceeded 10 million tons in October, which accounted for 30% of the monthly output of domestic steel mills. This has become the largest month for domestic steel mills to reduce production. In North China, the steel mills were severely restricted. Except for the normal production conditions of three of the 14 large and medium-sized steel mills, the rest were either repaired or reduced production lines. Since the second half of this year, 32 steel mills such as Angang, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Maanshan Iron and Steel, Taiyuan Iron and Steel, Chongqing Steel and Xinyu have reduced their production insured prices. Some two thirds of small and medium-sized steel companies in the province have reduced production and stopped production.
As for the specific production reduction data, it is currently only about 12 million tons, which is about 25-30% of the normal production. However, as a direct consequence of the reduction in steel production, the current traders and downstream users can already feel the market. Some specifications of steel began to be out of stock, especially home appliances, due to the country's efforts to implement the "home appliances to the countryside" policy, leading to the increase in orders for downstream household electrical appliance companies, direct purchase of a large number of home appliances board for production stocking needs.
In the current situation, the reduction in production has become an invariable choice for steel mills. On the one hand, it controls its own inventory through production cuts, accelerates the consumption of its own backlog of inventories, maintains the stability of its capital chain, and avoids the situation of capital chain breaks; On the other hand, private steel mills, through measures such as cuts in production and production, have “weakened†to local governments and actively sought government support to tide over difficulties. Local governments will also support bank loans and taxes for the sake of maintaining local economic and social stability. In addition, the consequent cuts in production of steel mills caused serious pressure on the prices of upstream raw materials, which directly lowered the production costs of raw materials that were high in the previous period, and indirectly reduced the amount of loss of steel mills.
Under the current circumstances, the time is not yet ripe for steelmakers to resume production on a large scale. On the one hand, steel prices have only rebounded slightly and there has not been a clear rebound. On the other hand, it is understood that the steel mills' backlog has not yet been fully digested. According to the current rate of digestion, the steel mills will be ready before the end of December. Will own normal digestive tract levels.
However, at present, some private small and medium-sized steel mills have already begun full production, taking advantage of the time difference between the current low prices of raw material prices in the market and the rebound in steel prices, and large-scale production captures market share, but large-scale steel mills have not yet completed their inventories. Can only wait for the opportunity.
Therefore, the reduction of production and production of steel mills is only temporary. Once the price of steel mills rebounds too quickly, too many steel resources will flow into the market and put pressure on prices directly. The so-called reduction of steel production is too good for the maintenance of market psychology. The stable level has little effect on the price trend.
Steel trend forecast at the end of the year On November 26, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council proposed to step up efforts to formulate plans for the revitalization of key industries such as steel, automobiles, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, light industry, textiles, nonferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information. Including the elimination of backward production capacity, lower export tariffs, the establishment of commercial storage and storage or national collection and storage, increase industry consolidation and a series of measures are brewing. The above policies will be specifically addressed in the soon-to-complete Plan for the Revitalization of the Iron and Steel Industry. The most innovative aspect of this “Reform Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry†is the establishment of commercial storage or national collection and storage measures. If it is specifically implemented, the large-scale backlog of steel mills will be directly transferred to the reserve system. Without entering the market circulation system, this is undoubtedly the best opportunity for steel mills to get rid of the current financial difficulties, and this will also stimulate market confidence and will play a role in fueling the ongoing price rebound.
Although current steel prices do not yet have the conditions for a large-scale rebound, the current rebound in steel prices is nothing more than a tentative action by some prophetic traders. Without actual support from downstream users, the rebound will not be long-term. There will also be a trend of the second bottom, especially near the end of the year, regardless of steel mills or traders and downstream users are in a special period of the peak of the year-end repayment, market funds will face an unprecedented test. Therefore, in the near future, everyone must be able to pay close attention to the changes in the price trend of the steel market, maintain fast-forward and fast-out operations, reasonably control their own inventory, and avoid trade risks.
The inflection point of real steel price trend is judged according to current conditions in various aspects and is expected to occur around the Spring Festival. On the one hand, the state’s RMB 4 trillion investment project that stimulates domestic demand will enter into a substantive start-up phase in January, and it will surely drive considerable steel demand. On the other hand, after the year, market liquidity will inject new liquidity, new annual loans will be gradually put in place, and traders' operating space will also be enlarged. Specific to individual steel products, infrastructure steels, such as rebar and wire rods, will be driven by demand and there is room for growth.
Will the steel market price reach the bottom twice?
Recently, following the announcement of a series of national policies to stimulate domestic demand, the confidence of the market and steel mills has recovered, which is reflected in the fact that the market price of steel also has a significant rebound rate from the previous low point, supported by favorable policies. Exactly how much room will the price rebound this time be, and whether there will be a double-dip price trend similar to the stock market? The current market is divided, and some believe that the current steel price rebound is only temporary and ultimately determines the important impact of the steel trend. Factors - demand has not fundamentally improved. Downstream key industries such as the auto industry and machinery industry are still in a situation of extremely shrinking demand. There can be no fundamental changes in the short term. Under such influence, the price trend of the steel market will remain. There has been a double bottoming trend, while others believe that the policy of stimulating domestic demand is showing its effect. In the later period, market demand will gradually increase, and prices will show a rebounding trend. Below, the author will make use of the data collected by various parties to make an objective analysis of these issues and hope to help everyone.