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According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to April 2011, the production and sales volume of heavy-duty trucks (including non-complete vehicles and semi-trailer tractors) were 389,000 and 396,000, respectively, an increase of 1.53% and 3.33% respectively; In April, the monthly production and sales volume was 89,000 units and 106,000 units respectively, and the output decreased by 16.2% year-on-year, with sales volume falling 8.33% year-on-year.
For the commercial vehicle companies that had hoped to flex their muscles in 2011, the April sales figures undoubtedly poured cold water on them. Under the influence of multiple factors, the growth rate of the heavy truck market slowed down and inventory levels remained high. In 2011, the heavy truck market was in a grim situation.
Stock pressure is huge
It is understood that Shaanxi Automobile Group's inventory pressure has emerged from the fourth quarter of 2010, once reaching the number of days. This is mainly because after the strong sales in 2010, all car companies are afraid to step down in 2011, so the expansion of production, to avoid the peak season for supply.
In 2010, driven by stimulus policies, the domestic heavy truck industry experienced explosive growth. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the annual production of heavy trucks in China was 1,058,600, an increase of 65.44% year-on-year; sales of 1,017,400 vehicles were up, a year-on-year increase of 59.93%. Due to the bullish industry growth trend, many domestic commercial vehicle companies have increased their productivity in the second half of 2010. However, the market situation in 2011 was counterproductive, leading to increased inventory pressure. According to conservative estimates, the current heavy truck inventory is about 200,000-2220,000 vehicles. A commercial vehicle company source revealed that the inventory of a commercial vehicle company in Shandong once reached 60,000-70,000 vehicles, which is an alarming figure.
The market situation in early 2011 did not reach expectations. It did not happen that the first quarter had just passed, and the peak sales season had already come to an end. The heavy truck market in 2011 is characterized by short seasons. The sales season in previous years can last from the beginning of the year to May. The result will end in April 2011 and will enter the off-season. It is expected that the new round of sales season will be usable by August. Industry analysts believe that because the central bank frequently raises the deposit reserve ratio and raises interest rates in the near future, the difficulty of loans will increase further, and terminal sales will be slow. Therefore, high inventory levels will continue.
Uneven hot and cold market segments
In 2011, the growth of the market was mainly driven by dump trucks. The number of tractors used to load cargo decreased significantly due to the decrease in new logistics. This was due to the start-up of domestic infrastructure projects and urban reform projects, and the sales of dump trucks kept rising. However, due to the reduction of new cargo shipments, freight prices did not increase, and the tractor market remained sluggish. According to statistics, the market share of dump trucks in the first quarter of 2011 has reached 54.5%, an increase of 34.7% year-on-year.
Benefiting from the increase in sales volume of the dump truck market, sales of some domestic commercial vehicle companies have maintained steady growth. Among them, Shaanxi Automobile, Jianghuai, and Hongyan maintain the average growth level of the industry, and the share of FAW's liberation in the medium-heavy truck market has declined. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle bucked the trend and Dongfeng Motor Business Express reported that Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Company sold 21,000 heavy vehicles in April and accumulated sales of 78,000 heavy vehicles in April.
Constrained by rising transportation costs such as oil prices, tolls, and the tightening of overhaul policies, the logistics and transportation market is currently in a downturn. People in the industry believe that there is no sign of rising vehicle transportation prices at present, and it is difficult for the demand for road vehicles to have a big improvement. The turbulence in the previous situation in Africa led to the impact of this traditional heavy-duty truck market. Therefore, the market in 2011 is not optimistic, either domestically or internationally. Analysts believe that entering the second quarter, with the continuous escalation of inflation warnings, the central bank continued to introduce tight monetary policy to cope with, which is undoubtedly bad news for the heavy truck industry.