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1. LED industry demand growth, the boom is greatly enhanced LED, also known as LED, is a solid-state semiconductor device, which uses solid semiconductor chips as a luminescent material, when the forward voltage is applied at both ends, the carriers in the semiconductor occur Compounding, releasing excess energy and causing photon emission to produce visible light is another revolution of light source after incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps. Compared with traditional lighting, LED lighting has the advantages of high luminous efficiency, energy saving, long life, environmental protection, and firm structure. It is suitable for various lighting places such as shopping malls, office buildings, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, and homes.
The development of the LED industry is closely related to its technological progress. Early LED chip materials have low luminous efficiency and low brightness, and are mainly used in the field of working status indication of instruments, consumer electronics and other products. In the early 1990s, with the advancement of technology, high-brightness red, orange, and yellow LED chips began to spread, and LED applications extended to automotive taillights, traffic lights, large indoor and outdoor displays, etc.; In the late 1920s, with the promotion of GaN-based materials technology, blue, green LEDs and white LEDs based on blue LED chips were industrialized, and LED applications were further extended to full-color displays, backlights and general lighting. At the same time, CSA statistics show that LED lighting and backlight applications have become an important area of ​​domestic LED applications.
1.1. LED lighting demand has increased significantly 1.1.1. Policy first, to help the LED lighting industry, major countries and regions in the world have successively issued policies and regulations for the complete elimination of incandescent lamps, the EU, Japan is equivalent to the total ban on the use of incandescent lamps in 2012, the United States, Canada, etc. Most incandescent lamps were phased out in 2012-2014. In November 2011, China released the “China Roadmap for Phased Elimination of Incandescent Lampsâ€. It is expected that the incandescent lamps for general lighting will be withdrawn from the domestic general lighting market after 2016. With the ban on the use of incandescent lamps, the LED lighting industry has entered a new stage of development. Compared with traditional lighting products, LED lighting products have obvious advantages in environmental protection, energy saving and service life. With the gradual decline of manufacturing costs, LED lighting products are expected to become the mainstream products in the lighting market in the future.
As LED lighting accelerates the replacement of traditional light sources, the domestic support for the LED lighting industry has increased. On May 7, 2012, the Ministry of Science and Technology released the "12th Five-Year Special Plan for the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Technology (Draft for Comment)". It is expected that the scale of the domestic LED lighting industry will reach 500 billion yuan in 2015, and the share of LED lighting products in the general lighting market. To reach 30. At the same time, the Ministry of Science and Technology clearly requires that the number of pilot demonstration cities should reach 50. LED lighting products not only cover outdoor street lighting, but also include indoor commercial lighting and civil lighting with larger market scale. On May 16, 2012, the State Council officially issued a series of new policy measures to promote the consumption of energy-efficient home appliances and other products. Among them, 2.2 billion yuan subsidies were arranged in lighting products, and plans to promote 10 million LED indoor lighting products (downlights, spotlights and bulbs) and 1 million LED outdoor lighting products (street lights and tunnel lights). In 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly compiled the “Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Planâ€. The plan proposes that by 2015, the market share of traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps will be stable at around 70%; the market share of LED functional lighting products will reach 20%; the incandescent lamps for general lighting above 60W will be eliminated, and the market for incandescent lamps will be occupied. The rate will drop below 10%.
1.1.2. Price is close to the people, accelerating the popularity of LED lighting With the increase in the production capacity of LED lighting products and the advancement of technology, its cost continues to decrease, driving prices down, and will accelerate the popularization of LED lighting products. LEDinside statistics show that the price of LED lamps equivalent to 40W and 60W conventional bulbs continues to fall. In October, the average retail price of a single equivalent 40W LED lamp fell to 15.8 US dollars, down 2.3, the average retail price of a single equivalent 60W LED lamp fell to 21.6 US dollars, a slight increase of 1.2.
As the price of LED lighting products continues to decline and the popularity accelerates, the LED lighting market will enter the fast lane. Mckinsey statistics show that in 2011, the LED lighting market is about 9 billion euros, accounting for about 12% of the global lighting market. With the acceleration of market development, the market size will exceed 30 billion euros in 2016, and the market share will rapidly increase to 40. In 2020, it will further increase to 60 billion euros, when the penetration rate of LED lighting will exceed 60, becoming the mainstream of the lighting market.
1.2. LED backlight demand grows steadily in the small-size backlight field. As the penetration rate of smartphones increases and the size of mobile phone screens increases, the demand for backlight LED devices will increase. Traditional function phones generally require 3 backlight LED devices, a smart phone 3.5-inch screen requires 8 backlight LED devices, and a 4-inch screen requires more than 10 backlight LED devices. In the medium-sized backlight field, the tablet PC shipments are rapidly growing under the push of the Apple iPad. The tablet 7-inch screen requires about 24 backlight LED devices, and the 9-inch screen requires more than 30 backlight LED devices. In the large-size backlight field, as the penetration rate of LED LCD TVs increases and the size of LCD TV screens increases, the demand for backlight LED devices will increase.
According to statistics from institutions such as iSuppli, TRI, CIPA, etc., the total global LED backlight demand in 2011 exceeded 30 billion, an increase of 33%. In 2012, the total demand for LED backlights will reach 50 billion, an increase of 43. The continued increase in shipments of mobile phones, tablets, notebooks and LED LCD TVs will guarantee the rapid growth of LED backlight demand.
2. Focus on industry leaders 2.1. LED industry chain analysis LED is a solid-state semiconductor device that can directly convert electrical energy into light energy, which is widely used in homes, supermarkets, hospitals, banks, hotels and other public places. According to the manufacturing process of the product, the LED industry chain is mainly divided into three parts: upstream, midstream and downstream.
Upstream links include semiconductor substrate materials, LED epitaxial wafers, LED chip fabrication, and related device manufacturing, which are capital and technology intensive. At present, this field is mainly controlled by leading foreign manufacturers, and only a few domestic manufacturers have entered.
The middle reaches are mainly packaged and tested. The midstream industry has high technical content and relatively dense capital. It has benefited from the recovery of demand in the fields of downstream display, backlight and lighting, and the market in the industry has gradually expanded. Due to the low barriers to entry, more domestic manufacturers have entered this field.
The downstream links mainly include subdivisions such as lighting, backlighting, and display, which have the characteristics of industry subdivision. The market demand in the application field is huge, but the requirements for brands and channels are relatively high. A large number of domestic manufacturers have entered this field.
2.2. Focus on the leading players in all segments of the industry chain Under the dual promotion of downstream demand such as lighting and backlighting, the LED industry will pick up and replace the acceleration. There is a problem of relative overcapacity in the upstream chip and midstream packaging areas of the industry, and product prices will continue to decline. However, a few manufacturers will stand out with the advantages of technology and scale, and downstream application product manufacturers will increase channel construction efforts to enhance the stickiness with end customers. And cut into emerging applications. As the LED industry recovers, downstream demand will increase significantly, and the industry will enter the fast track. Downstream application vendors will benefit first by leveraging channel advantages and end customers. Upstream chips and midstream package manufacturers will stand out in the fierce competition due to their economies of scale and technological leadership. We recommend focusing on the channel and technology leaders in the industry chain: Sunlight Lighting, Jufei Optoelectronics, Hongli Optoelectronics, etc.
2.2.1. Sunlight lighting: channel customer capacity, lighting faucet soaring company is the leading supplier of energy-saving lighting products in China, the main products are integrated electronic energy-saving lamps, all kinds of lamps, LED lights and so on.
The sales channel pioneer company focuses on sales channel construction. After years of hard work, the company has gradually established a sales channel with more than 3,000 dealers covering comprehensive and functional functions. The company has vigorously expanded its international market on the basis of continuous improvement of the domestic market, established sales centers in Europe and the United States, and established production bases in Vietnam. At the same time, the company is also actively building new sales channels, such as online store sales, supermarket sales and other models.
Hand in hand with the high-quality customer company to cultivate the lighting industry for many years, in the field of traditional energy-saving lamps, has established a long-term stable cooperative relationship with foreign lighting company Philips, the company has about 50 energy-saving lamps sold to Philips. In the field of new LED lamps, the company has cooperated with Philips, Osram and General Lighting in the field of traditional lighting, and has already achieved volume supply.
Rapid improvement of LED lighting production capacity The company closely grasps the development trend of the industry and rapidly increases the production capacity of LED lighting products to meet the development needs of the industry. Through 11 years of private placement and additional investment projects, the company has switched to LED products and other initiatives to greatly increase the production capacity of LED lighting products. The company will form a production capacity of approximately 80 million LED lamps per year in the future. The business focus will be on the transition from traditional energy-saving lamps to new LED lamps. .
2.2.2. Hongli Optoelectronics: Automotive Lighting and General Lighting Drive 14-year high growth company specializes in the R&D, production and sales of LED devices and their application products. The main products are LampLED, SMDLED and its application products, which are widely used. For general lighting, backlights, automotive signal / lighting, special lighting, special lighting, display and many other fields.
Foda, a subsidiary of the company's automotive lighting business, focuses on the field of automotive LED lighting and is actively developing international and domestic markets. The company has launched a series of products such as driving lights and police lights, and has close contact with foreign after-sales channels and domestic vehicle manufacturers. The automotive lighting market has a high barrier to entry and a high level of gross profit margin. The company's automotive lighting business will help to improve overall profitability.
Ledia, a subsidiary of the general lighting business, specializes in the field of general-purpose LED lighting. Now it has launched LED light strips, fluorescent lamps, downlights, panel lights, spotlights and other products. In the future, the company will further strengthen channel construction and achieve leap-forward development through flexible strategies.
2.2.3. Jufei Optoelectronics: Strong and strong, brighter and more companies specialize in the research and development, production and sales of SMDLED devices, the products are mainly backlight LED devices and a small number of lighting LED devices.
The small size backlight advantage is significant. The company focuses on the small-size LED backlight field, accounting for about 30% of the domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers' market share. The company's technology accumulation is profound, and it is the first to introduce super bright series products to effectively meet the diversified needs of customers. At present, the company has cut into the supply chain of high-quality mobile phone products of ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo, and has no worries.
The medium and large-size backlight rapid development company fully grasps the good opportunity of the Open-cell business model and cuts into the supply chain of Skyworth, Hisense and Changhong. With the increase in downstream demand, the company will achieve rapid development in the field of medium and large size backlights.
The lighting business benefited from the industry's booming company. With the accumulation of existing technology, the company continued to improve the performance of LED products, developed high-quality lighting products, and adjusted the original marketing system to strengthen the construction of lighting product marketing teams. After completing the integration of various internal resources, the company has actively expanded to the outside world and has entered the industry's quality customer supply chain.
Emerging business is worth looking forward to the company's focus on LED backlight products, active horizontal product expansion in the field of backlight modules, enrich product lines, meet customer needs, will become a highlight of next year's performance growth. At the same time, the company will expand into the flash business and will take the lead in cutting into the domestic smartphone manufacturer supply chain, which will be performed next year.