The Status and Development Trend of Chinese Machine Tool Industry

On September 1, at the “2010 China Shenyang International Machine Tool Industry Summit”, Mao Yufeng, deputy secretary-general of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, introduced the status of the Chinese machine tool industry and analyzed the future development trend of the industry.

I. Status Quo of China's Machine Tool Industry

The status quo of the Chinese machine tool industry, summarized in one sentence, is "big but not strong."

1. The main sign of "big" is that the industrial scale has achieved a historic breakthrough.

1 In the vertical comparison, the major economic indicators achieved rapid growth for eight consecutive years.

Due to the market's pull, since 2002, China's machine tool industry has achieved rapid growth for eight consecutive years. Although the financial crisis has also had a certain impact on China's market demand, it has not fundamentally changed the general trend of sustained and rapid development of the entire industry.

In 2009, the industry's total industrial output value reached 401.42 billion yuan, an increase of 16.1 percent year-on-year, 6.3 times more than in 2001, and an average annual increase of 33.6%; and the output value of industrial products sold was 392.25 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7 percent year-on-year and 6.1 percent higher than 2001. Times, an average annual increase of 34.1%. The output of machine tools was 799,000 units, down 9% year-on-year, of which: the output of gold-cutting machine tools was 580,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, a two-fold increase from 2001, and an average annual increase of 14.8%. The output of CNC machine tools was 153,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, 7.2 times more than 2001, and an average annual increase of 30.1%, of which: Jinche CNC machine tool output was 144,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; machine tool products were exported 4.74 billion US dollars, year-on-year This was a decrease of 33.5%, which was a 4.7-fold increase from 2001. Among them, the export of machine tools was US$1.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, a 3.9-fold increase over 2001, and an average annual increase of 21.9%.

Since entering 2010, the entire industry has continued to maintain the momentum of prosperous production and sales. In the first half of the year, the total industrial output value was 242.42 billion yuan, up 41.4% year-on-year; the industrial product sales value was 235.87 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year; the production and sales rate was 97.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year; the machine tool output was 470,000 units, up 27% year-on-year ( The number of CNC machine tools was 100,000, an increase of 50.1% year-on-year; machine tool products were exported at US$3.11 billion, an increase of 45.7% year-on-year, of which machine tool exports were US$8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The profit rate of the industry has increased significantly year-on-year, but the profit structure and profit structure should be further analyzed. The hidden problems should arouse the attention of the industry.

2 horizontal comparison, the status in the world machine tool industry has improved significantly

Since 2009, China has become the world’s largest machine tool consumer and the largest importer of machine tools for the eighth consecutive year. In 2009, under the special background of the negative growth of the global machine tool industry due to the financial crisis, the industry's total industrial output value has been ranked first in the world from the third place, thus becoming the world's largest machine tool producer.

2. "Not strong" is mainly manifested in: At present, China's machine tool industry only has relatively comparative advantage in terms of scale. Compared with machine tool manufacturing countries, there are still obvious gaps in terms of structure, level, R&D, and service capabilities.

1 Low-end products have excess capacity, price wars, and high-end products mainly rely on imports. Although the market share of domestic machine tools in 2009 has risen to 70.1%, but the import of machine tools is still up to 5.9 billion US dollars, of which 4.56 billion US dollars gold cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools 1.34 billion US dollars. Almost all imported products are high-end CNC machine tools (including complete sets of production lines). It can be seen that for the needs of high-end products, domestic machine tools have long been subject to structural contradictions that are not required by the supply and cannot be provided. Although improvements have been made at present, they have not yet fundamentally changed.

2 The development of high-performance CNC systems and functional components has lagged behind the mainframe and has become a bottleneck restricting the development of the CNC machine tool industry.

3 The ability of independent innovation is not strong. The basic, key, and common technologies have not yet been fully mastered. With enterprises as the mainstay and the combination of production, study, and research, the open, socialized R&D system is still at an exploratory stage.

4 The Chinese machine tool industry has not yet achieved a transformation from manufacturing to service manufacturing. In particular, weak engineering integration capabilities, and the provision of complete production lines for key manufacturing industries such as automobiles are still in their infancy.

5 Industry concentration is not high. There are as many as 5,944 enterprises in the whole industry; the host companies are large but not strong, small but not sophisticated; the supporting capabilities are weak, and the industrial division of labor is not clear; the industrial chain system adapted to the rapid development of the CNC machine tool industry is still not perfect.

6 The scarcity of high-end talent, especially the lack of advanced talents in the research and development of high-end numerical control machine tools, numerical control systems and functional components; the lack of senior technicians; and the lack of an integrated management talent with an international perspective. At present, the shortage of high-end talent has become a deep-rooted reason that restricts the rapid and sustainable development of the CNC machine tool industry.

Second, the development trend of China's machine tool industry

If the development trend of China's machine tool industry in the next 5 to 10 years is also summed up in one sentence, it is to "achieve a change from big but not strong to strong and big." The approach is: change the mode of development, adjust the industrial and product structure, and achieve industrial upgrading.

The following analysis from the three levels of market, industry and technology:

1. Market trends

(1) Demand in the domestic market will continue to grow rapidly

In 2009, the consumption of China's machine tool market was 19.44 billion U.S. dollars, with the development of the national economy and the increase in market demand, especially from automobile manufacturing, high-speed railway construction, highway construction, and green energy construction (combined solar energy utilization, nuclear power, wind power, and hydropower Oil and gas extraction and transportation, construction machinery, large aircraft, regional aircraft and shipbuilding and other industries will be driven by the rapid development, and the domestic machine tool consumption will also have huge room for growth. It is expected that the annual average will still maintain double-digit growth.

In the international market, the main export markets of Chinese machine tool products are still Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia, while the demand of emerging economies will show rapid growth. The structure of export products will be mainly medium to low-end products to the middle-grade CNC machine tools, high-end edge measuring tools and complete sets of equipment. It is expected that China's machine tool export rankings are expected to enter the top three in the world in the next decade.

(2) Increased market demand and increased market segmentation

In the process of shifting from a “manufacturing power” to a “manufacturing powerhouse” in China, the demand structure and level of CNC machine tool products in the core manufacturing fields of key industries in the national economy will undergo major changes, mainly in the following aspects:

● Land transportation and transportation industry will become the focus of national economic development. The automobile manufacturing industry will develop rapidly. It is expected that the output will reach 15 million or more in 2020 and the ranking will leap to the top in the world. In order to meet the needs of energy conservation, environmental protection and safety, the precision, efficiency and automation requirements of the required equipment will be greatly improved. The construction of high-speed railways will also be launched in an all-round way. The freight line network will take shape and the maximum speed will reach 300 kilometers. In the above construction, not only a large number of general-purpose CNC machine tools, but also a large number of special CNC machining equipment, especially complete sets of production lines. All these will increase the level of demand in the Chinese machine tool market.

● The aerospace manufacturing industry will focus on the development of regional aircraft. At the same time, it will start the development of large aircraft, attach importance to the development of general-purpose aircraft, civilian helicopters and subcontract production, and initially realize the commercialization of civil aircraft; the aerospace manufacturing industry will develop manned space flight and lunar exploration projects. High-capacity communications satellites, a new generation of high-lift non-toxic, non-polluting launch vehicles, and high-resolution earth observation systems are the focus. The start-up and implementation of these projects will require a large number of high-speed, high-precision, composite CNC machine tools, due to the performance of the processed materials (composite materials, such as super-hard, sticky, etc.) and shapes (large-size thin-walled parts, complex space surfaces, etc.) Particularity poses unprecedented challenges to processing equipment and process capabilities.

● The energy industry will focus on the development of large-scale and high-efficiency clean power generation equipment, including millions of kilowatt-class nuclear power units, large-scale hydropower units and pumped-storage units, supercritical thermal power units, gas-steam combined cycle units, and high-power wind turbines. It is predicted that the installed capacity of electric power will reach 1.4 billion kilowatts by 2020, and the manufacturing capacity of large-scale, high-efficiency and clean power generation equipment will have much room for improvement, and the gap in the corresponding manufacturing equipment is still large.

● The shipbuilding industry is expected to achieve a shipbuilding capacity of 28 million dwt by 2015, which may become the largest shipbuilding country. In the next 5 to 10 years, we will focus on the development of large-scale high-tech, high-value-added products such as large offshore oil engineering equipment, 300,000 tons of ore and crude oil tankers, FPSO, 10,000 TEUs or more container ships, and LNG carriers. Ships and high-power diesel engines and other ancillary equipment. There will be a new boost in the level of manufacturing.

From the demand of the above several fields, it can be foreseen that the demand for the Chinese machine tool market will develop to a higher level in the next decade, and the market segmentation will become more and more obvious.

2. Industry development trend

(1) There is a huge space for industrial development and there is a clear trend in the overall technological level of the industry.

China's machine tool industry currently has relatively complete categories of products, a certain technical base and manufacturing capabilities, and the industry has a lot of room for growth due to the strong market demand. Under the reasonable planning and support of the competent government departments, the overall technology level of the Chinese machine tool industry has become very clear.

(2) High school, low demand will exist for a long time, and industrial structure and production capacity will be gradually optimized.

China's machine tool products currently have relatively low numerical control rates, regional and industrial development is not balanced, and a variety of economic forms will exist for a long time. These factors all determine that the future high, medium and low demand in the Chinese machine tool market will exist for a long time. However, after the international financial crisis, with the increase in market demand, the adjustment of the industrial structure of the equipment manufacturing industry has become an industry consensus, and the industrial structure will be further optimized. It can be predicted that in the future, the market demand for middle and low-end products will gradually decline, and the demand for high-end products will increase rapidly.

(3) There will be a group of large and strong, small and fine or small and specialized enterprises in the industry

Large-scale enterprise groups or specialized enterprises represented by the development of heavy-duty machine tools, machining centers, numerical control lathes, precision grinding machines, gear processing machine tools, electric processing machine tools, and forging presses will gradually develop and develop rapidly. The level of internationalization of the industry will be further enhanced. It is expected that the number of companies entering the top 100 machine tools in the world in the next ten years will increase to more than ten.

(4) The geographical distribution of industries is more reasonable, and the degree of industrial clustering will be further improved.

With the gradual implementation of national regional economic planning, especially the role of market allocation of resource measures in regional economic development, the industrial layout of the machine tool industry will exhibit geographical distribution characteristics. In the future, a machine industry cluster zone represented by the northeast, northwest, east China, southwest, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will be formed. Surrounding specialty products or machine tool industry groups will form supporting industrial clusters in the cluster zone.

3. Technology development trend

(1) The transformation of technology research mode, market demand becomes the dominant factor

The research mode of China's machine tool industry will change from follow-up to exploration and from passive to independent innovation. The research subject will change from singleness to diversity, and market demand will become the main driving force for research. Such as super-heavy gantry milling machine, processing diameter 28 meters vertical lathes and other products are developed successfully in the domestic market demand for continuous improvement. Therefore, under the market demand, the research mode of the Chinese machine tool industry will undergo a major transformation.

(2) Diversification of technological input, technological innovation platform and industrial innovation alliance will play a leading role

While state investment continues to play a guiding role, self-financing, socialized financing, and foreign investment will become an important part of technology investment. The technological innovation platform formed by the participation of enterprises as the leader, universities and research institutes, and industrial innovation alliances formed by companies in the same industry will play a leading role.

(3) The degree of internationalization of technical research is improved, and the trend of globalization of talents is obvious.

Due to the transformation of research models and the diversification of research input, the international participation in technology research in the Chinese machine tool industry will increase significantly. This will be mainly reflected in two aspects: First, more companies begin to cooperate with leading research institutions or companies in the world; second, more companies have the ability to provide technical services to international machine tool users. Based on the above-mentioned circumstances, the technical personnel resources will surely realize the globalization configuration and form an interactive mechanism that combines the “introduction and the going out”.

(4) The strength of technological research is strengthened, and the pace of technological development is synchronized with the developed countries

High-precision, high-speed, composite, flexible, intelligent, green manufacturing will become the main direction for the development of China's machine tool industry, and product manufacturing precision, manufacturing capacity, and technical service levels will be greatly improved.

(5) Forecast of technical application development trend

● Direct drive technology will be adopted in large-scale high-end CNC machine tools, and the machine tool structure will be more suitable for high-speed, high-precision machining needs.

● The intelligent auxiliary programming and operation software will become the standard configuration of CNC machine tools. The machine tool has intelligent monitoring functions and can realize remote control and performance management with the network interface.

● Processing specifications, accuracy and performance indicators have been developed to limit.

● The machining efficiency of the machine tool is improved, the unit energy consumption is reduced, and the environmental protection processing method will replace the traditional method.

● The automation device integrates the application on the machine tool, and the machine tool has a higher level of automation.

● Efficient and precise special processing technology has been fully developed. It can replace traditional processing methods within a certain range. More users have started to apply related technologies to build new parts production lines.

Third, cooperation and win-win is the inevitable choice faced by Chinese and foreign machine tool companies.

Everyone knows that in the face of the financial crisis's impact on the global economy, both the developed countries and the developing countries have reached such a consensus that cooperation and mutual benefit are the inevitable choices to tide over difficulties.

The machine tool industry is no exception. In the face of the continuous impact of the post-financial crisis on the global machine tool industry, facing the opportunities in the Chinese machine tool market in the next few years, cooperation and win-win will also become inevitable choices for Chinese and foreign machine tool companies.

The cooperation I am talking about here includes not only the cooperation between Chinese and foreign companies, but also the cooperation between domestic enterprises; it includes the cooperation between host companies and supporting enterprises, and also between enterprises and universities and scientific research institutes. Cooperation.

The cooperation area should include R&D and design, manufacturing, sales and service, and training. I think that in the next 5 to 10 years, Chinese and foreign companies will cooperate in the fields of high-end CNC machine tools, numerical control systems, and key functional components in the key manufacturing fields of the national key industries such as automobiles, aerospace, shipbuilding, rail transportation, and energy. Should be optimistic. The industry should consider the breadth and depth of seeking cooperation from different perspectives. It should not be limited to cooperation in technology, products, and manufacturing, and should actively explore cooperation among business models.

At present, some international well-known supporting enterprises invest and build factories in China's machine tool industry agglomeration areas, supporting the host companies on the spot. This is also a form of cooperation. For example, Seiko Co., Ltd. and Yaskawa Electric have already established factories in Shenyang, providing Shenyang Machine Tools and other Chinese companies with screws, guide rails, bearings, and motors. This will be conducive to the development of China's CNC machine tool industry, but also conducive to the increase in the market share of investors' products in the Chinese market.

After decades of development, China's machine tool industry has already solved problems from scratch and from small to large. Based on the huge demand of the Chinese market and the industrial upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, with the care and support of governments at all levels, we have reason to believe that through the joint efforts of enterprises in the entire industry and through the road of win-win cooperation, we will be able to achieve " Strong and big goal.