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At present, the use of high-carbon α-olefins instead of 1-butene to produce high-performance linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) has become a trend. Colin Houston & Associates consultants pointed out that 1-octene is still in short supply this year, and will not be relieved until 2007 after Sasol's new plant is put into operation; both the supply of terpenes and C12 olefins will be tightened. The supply of C10 olefins, which are mainly used for the production of synthetic lubricants, is more intense, and polyalphaolefin producers are more dependent on other alternatives. For longer carbon-chain alpha-olefins, producers are optimistic about C16 and C18 olefins, because high energy prices have stimulated the development of the drilling industry, and the potential for growth in oilfield chemicals has become greater.
Although the outlook for α-olefins is good, there is not much new capacity. It is expected that new projects will be mainly concentrated in the Middle East in the next few years. Saudi Sabic will be operating a new 150,000-tonne/year plant this year, and Chevron Phillips's 350,000-tonne/year plant in Qatar will be commissioned in 2008. Several other manufacturers are still studying capacity expansion or de-bottlenecking plans.
According to analysis by industry insiders, the future focus of the alpha-olefin industry is to develop medium and heavy distillate markets, and rising raw material costs are the main factors affecting the development of the industry. (Rao Xinghe)
Global α-olefin market recovery
After several years of weakened demand and sluggish profits, demand for α-olefins unexpectedly increased by 12% in 2004. Although demand growth slowed in 2005, supply was still tense due to hurricanes and partial plant shutdowns. Insiders pointed out that even if the demand increases rapidly in 2006, the operating rate of the industry is expected to reach about 95%.