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According to CMAI, the global PVC market has experienced a period of rapid expansion of production capacity. From 2004 to 2007, the global new PVC production capacity was 5.5 million tons/year, which accounted for approximately 14.4% of the current total capacity of 44 million tons/year. It is said that about 90% of new production capacity comes from China. In this case, PVC-producing countries that previously used China as the main export market, such as Japan and South Korea, could only find new markets or reduce production.
The report believes that due to the declining residential industry, PVC demand in North America is relatively weak, and this situation is expected to continue into the second half of 2008. At the same time, the increase in the cost of ethylene has also squeezed the profits of PVC producers. The contract price of ethylene in the United States has increased for 8 consecutive months, with an increase of 46%, while the increase in PVC prices during the same period was limited. In October, the European PVC contract price is 990 ~ 1010 euros / ton (FOB Northwest Europe), Asia vinyl PVC contract price is 910 ~ 940 US dollars / ton (CFR China).
Bank of America analyst Kevin McCarthy said that due to the growth of export demand, the operating rate of PVC equipment in the global market increased by 20% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year; however, due to the gradual slowdown in export demand, it is expected that the fourth quarter PVC equipment The operating rate will fall to 80% or below. From 2008 to 2009, the global production capacity of PVC will be put into operation one after another and will exert further pressure on the operating rate of global PVC equipment.
CMAI said Shintech’s new 300,000-ton/year PVC capacity at the Plaquemine plant in Louisiana will be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; Georgia Gulf’s new 200,000-ton/year PVC capacity at Plaquemine will also be available. Launched in early 2008; Westlake invests in a $90 million vinyl production complex in Calvert, Kentucky, including an additional 136,000 tons/year of PVC capacity, which is expected to begin production in the second half of 2009.
Global PVC market growth unabated
In recent years, 90% of new production capacity comes from China. According to the latest report from the Chemical Market Association of America (CMAI) in Houston, the global market for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4% over the next five years. With rapid growth, especially in some developing countries, market demand will show rapid growth.