GUANGZHOU HTD INTERNATIONAL , https://www.htdmask.com
At present, China's four sub-sectors, chlor-alkali, soda ash, pesticides, and inorganic salts, are in the rebound phase of the decline channel, and will continue to enter a new round of decline after the economic rebound. While the tire industry continues to be in a sluggish downturn, it will enter a slow recovery channel in the future as rubber prices decline, and the plastic products sub-sector has already been operating in a recovery.
The chemical industry has entered a downward trend Since 2006, due to the slowdown in downstream demand and the cyclical factors in the industry, the growth rate of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing has slowed down significantly. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July 2006, the sales of chemical raw materials and chemicals achieved 10.814 million yuan in product sales, an increase of 26% over the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate was down by 5 percentage points from the full-year level in 2005. The total profit realized was 58.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate was down by 6 percentage points from the entire year of 2005.
As the impact of domestic macroeconomic controls lags behind, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic fixed asset investment and downstream demand for chemical products will further slow down in the future. In accordance with the operating law of the petrochemical industry, the chemical industry has completed a nine-to-ten-year upswing in the five years from 2001 to 2005. In the next three to five years, the domestic chemical industry will continue to operate in the downturn channel. .
The sales growth rate of domestic chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry decreased from 33.33% and 31.15% in 2004 and 2005 to 25.64% in January-July 2006, respectively. The total profit growth rate was 86% and 15% in 2004 and 2005. % dropped to 9.2% in the first seven months of 2006. The growth rate showed a declining trend year by year. After the growth rate of the two indicators of sales revenue and total profit of chemical products and chemicals manufacturing products peaked in 2004, it is expected that the downward trend in 2005 will continue for the whole year of 2006, and it may turn negative in the future.
The statistical analysis of the 2006 mid-term report data of listed companies in the chemical industry shows that the operating trend of listed companies is a good example of the decline in the growth rate of the industry and the decline in profitability. In the first half of 2006, the total revenue of main businesses of 70 sample listed companies in the chemical industry, including chlor-alkali, soda ash, plastic products, tires, pesticides, inorganic chemicals, and some specialty chemicals, totaled 53.6 billion yuan, only a year-on-year increase of 6 %. In addition, the total profits of the main business of the sample decreased by 2% compared with the same period of last year. After deducting a portion of the sample that resulted in large losses from non-operating profit or loss, the total net profit fell by 15% compared with the same period of last year, and the profit decreased significantly. Affected by seasonal factors, the sample company’s revenue and profits in the second quarter increased significantly compared with the first quarter.
Sub-sectors differ greatly in the economic climate in the first half of the year due to the different inputs and outputs of various sub-industries in the chemical industry chain. The non-synchronous changes in the prices of upstream and downstream products led to changes in the profitability and direction of changes in different sub-sectors in the first half of 2006. Big difference. Statistics show that the sub-industries with rapid growth in sales revenue are chlor-alkali, pesticides and tires. The sub-industries with significant profit growth are soda ash, pesticides and plastic products. The profit levels of the tire and inorganic chemicals sub-sectors are significantly higher. Decline.
First of all, the chlor-alkali industry did not increase its revenue, which was in line with the fact that the industry’s production capacity has expanded significantly since 2006, and the prices of the main products PVC and chlorine have dropped significantly. The soda ash industry was hit hard by the apparent drop in the price of soda ash since the first half of 2006.
Secondly, in the first half of 2006, the pesticide industry benefited from the drop in the prices of chemical raw materials and the growth in demand, which reflected the simultaneous growth of income and profits, and the most balanced growth trend in all sub-sectors.
Third, the plastic products industry also benefited from the decline in prices of plastic raw materials in the first half of 2006. The main business’s main business revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, main business profits increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 11.7% year-on-year. The tire industry was severely affected by the sharp increase in the price of rubber raw materials, which was reflected in the fact that the increase in income did not increase profits. The main business revenues of 6 companies, such as Fengshen and Jiatong, increased by 15.4% year-on-year, but the main business profits decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, and net profit dropped sharply by 39.5% year-on-year.
Fourth, the inorganic chemicals industry is in a depression. The inorganic chemicals sub-sectors including barium salts, barium salts, phosphorous chemicals, titanium dioxide, and undiluted powders showed a significant downward trend in the first half of 2006. In the first half of the year, 9 enterprises such as Hongxing Development, Chengxing and Lantai Industries recorded a year-on-year decrease in their main business revenues by 2.2% year-on-year, while their main business profits decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, and their net profit dropped sharply by 26.5% year-on-year.
In some industries, there will be a rebound in the economy. In the first half of 2006, the sharp decline in the prices of some chemical products such as soda ash and polyvinyl chloride has caused high-cost enterprises in some industries to be at the edge of losses, changes in the supply and demand patterns caused by declines in operating rates, and related product prices. Since the second quarter there has been a rebound. However, as the basic chemical industry regards production cost as the core competition factor, as the production capacity of low-cost manufacturers continues to expand, the industry equilibrium product prices will continue to decline in the future. The price increase in most sub-sectors since the second quarter is only a mid-to-long-term downward trend. Short-term rebound.
Comprehensive analysis of international and domestic macroeconomic trends and international and domestic petrochemical industry operating trends, it is expected that the domestic basic chemical industry will continue to operate in the downturn channel in the next three years or so. Judging the position of the current cyclical climate in various chemical sub-sectors, the four sub-sectors of chlor-alkali, soda ash, pesticides and inorganic salts are currently in the rebound phase of the downturn, and will continue to enter a new round of decline after the rebound of the economy; tire industry Continually in a sluggish downturn, but with the recent sharp drop in international rubber prices, the tire industry may enter a slow recovery path; benefiting from the high raw material prices stabilizing and falling into a downward aisle, the plastics products sub-sector has been operating in a recovery economy. .
The rebound in the price of PVC is difficult to sustain the continuous high prices of international crude oil. With domestic calcium carbide and electricity prices rising, domestic PVC prices have risen sharply since the third quarter. From the middle of July to the end of August, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's S-700 model PVC was raised from 6,900 yuan/ton to 7,800 yuan/ton; in the East China market, the average price of the PVC method rose from 6,600 yuan/ton to 7,700 yuan/ton. In tons, the increase reached 16%. However, since the price of calcium carbide has also risen sharply from 2,000 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton since the third quarter (Inner Mongolia Wuhai ex-factory price), the impact of rising PVC prices on various types of companies is quite different.
In the short term, the average price of PVC in the third quarter will be significantly higher than the average in the second quarter and the first half of the year, and the quarterly performance of listed companies in the chlor-alkali industry will grow significantly in comparison to the previous quarter. Since 2003, due to the increase in PVC prices, increased profitability, and a large domestic supply gap, the domestic new production capacity has been launched in large numbers. In 2005, the actual new production capacity exceeded 2 million tons. In 2006, a large number of capacity under construction will be put into production. condition. However, in 2005, the domestic production capacity of 9 million tons exceeded the apparent consumption of 7.92 million tons in the same year, and the overcapacity was further aggravated in 2006. Therefore, in the medium to long term, the price of domestic PVC is affected by the trend of international crude oil prices. The release of a large number of new production capacity will make it difficult for PVC prices to maintain its high level in the third quarter. The profitability of the industry will continue to decline after a brief rebound.
At the end of September, as international crude oil prices fell to a half-year low of US$60/barrel, the price of calcium carbide method PVC has apparently dropped to around 7,300 yuan/ton. It is expected that the PVC industry in China will have to start integrating industries based on cost competition, and the probability of medium-to-long-term price decline will continue to be large.
The recovery of the price of soda ash industry has been supported since the second quarter of 2006. Benefiting from the high-speed growth of the downstream industries such as glass and alumina, domestic soda ash prices have risen significantly due to demand.
Since 2004, the major downstream flat glass and alumina production growth in the soda industry has continued to exceed the growth rate of production of soda ash products. For example, domestic flat glass production in 2005 increased by 16.8% over the previous year, while alumina production increased by 23.2%, while domestic soda production increased by only 12.7% over the same period of last year. In the first half of 2006, affected by the macro-control, the output of domestic flat glass increased by 11.0% from the previous year, slightly lower than the 11.2% growth rate of national soda ash production over the same period, but the domestic alumina production increased by 49.5% during the same period, and the demand for soda ash products increased. Constitute an important support. Comprehensive supply and demand factors, the domestic round of soda product prices rebounded by the supply and demand side support, it is expected that this round of price rebound will continue for a longer period.
At present, China's soda ash industry has the following characteristics: Soda ash product has low unit value, small product sales radius, obvious advantages of low-cost entrants in the region; industry concentration is high, and the total market share of the top seven manufacturers in domestic production has reached Around 50%, the regional market share within a reasonable shipping radius is even higher; the major manufacturers of soda ash industry have significant differences in production costs, and a steep or stepped supply curve makes the industry product prices stronger in the 1300 to 1400 yuan/ton range. Support, the future continued to fall limited space.
Therefore, the soda industry, which has regional advantages and relatively high industrial concentration, has certain self-discipline in terms of capacity expansion and price competition, and the fluctuation of the industry is relatively small.
Significant recovery in the pesticide industry Since 2003, as international crude oil prices have continued to rise and domestic energy prices have risen, the prices of organic intermediates, yellow phosphorus, liquid chlorine, and methanol have risen significantly, and the production costs of pesticide companies have continued to rise. However, since the first quarter of 2005, the price of chemical raw materials fell back from a high level. At the same time, the price of pesticides rose due to cost, and the profitability of the domestic pesticide industry began to rebound.
Historically, China's pesticide industry policies have been relatively loose, barriers to industry entry are low, and low-level redundant construction and overcapacity are serious. The sales of 8 major pesticide multinational companies in the world accounted for about 80% of the global sales of pesticides, while nearly 2,000 pesticide production companies in China, even if the listed company’s largest sales revenue of pesticide products accounted for only about 3% of national sales revenue. The industry concentration is very low. This leads to disorderly competition in the domestic pesticide market and directly affects the economic benefits of the company. The poor economic strength of a single pesticide company has led to low investment in R&D of new drugs, and the entire industry has always been in a vicious cycle of product homogeneity and price competition.
From the perspective of the development of the international pesticide industry, the profits of the industry are shifting from the manufacture of original drugs to finished products and sales channels. Similarly, with 1 ton of glyphosate herbicide, domestic enterprises can only obtain less than 30,000 yuan in sales revenue in the form of original drugs. And a few thousand dollars of gross profit. This led to China's pesticide production, although accounting for a quarter of the world, but sales are less than one-tenth of the global market. However, at the same time, the international shift in the production of pesticides of common varieties towards low production costs and environmental protection costs has become a trend. If domestic domestic pesticide manufacturers can gain a large market share in this round of international industrial transfer, their scale strength and profitability are expected to be within a short period of time. Get a quick boost.
Under the guidance of a series of policies such as the National New Rural Strategy, the pesticide industry in China will face good opportunities for development in the next five years, but a good external environment will only provide a possibility. The leading factor in the new life of the pesticide industry lies in the industries and enterprises. Internal transformation. In addition, since January 1, 2007, five highly toxic organophosphorus pesticides such as methamidophos, methyl parathion, parathion, monocrotophos, and phosphine have been banned in China. The use of these five pesticides and preparations accounts for about 25% of the total use of pesticides. The withdrawal of such varieties will leave a great alternative space for new low-toxicity and environmental pesticides, and expand production for some powerful companies in the short term. Scale and market share provide historic development opportunities.
The bottom line of the plastics industry is booming. Inverted plastics products use synthetic petrochemicals and other upstream products as inputs, and production costs and profitability are greatly affected by upstream product prices. Since 2002, the price of synthetic resin and other raw materials has risen sharply, which has seriously impacted the profitability of the industry. The film products such as BOPET and BOPP have also been affected by serious overcapacity. The leading profitability of Fosugufen and Nanjing Zhongda has been seriously deteriorated.
Since 2005, with the petrochemical industry cycle peaking, prices of chemical raw materials such as synthetic resins have stabilized. Take the bottle-grade polyester chip price as an example. In 2000, the price of domestic bottle-grade polyester chips was only around 7,500 yuan/ton, and in 2005 it reached 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the international crude oil price hit record highs in 2006, the price of futures with a maximum price of nearly US$80/bbl has been more than 50% higher than in 2005, but the domestic bottle-grade polyester price is only in the small range of 11,000 to 13,000 yuan/ton. Volatility provides a relatively stable business environment for plastic products companies.
However, due to the low technical and financial barriers in the plastics industry and the overcapacity of most of the products, an improvement in profitability will soon attract a large amount of production capacity to start again or new projects will be launched. Therefore, it is expected that the industry's economic inversion will first appear in industry technology and capital barriers. High, relatively concentrated production capacity of beverage packaging products and plastic doors and windows profiles in two industries.
Fundamental industry goes down in fluctuations
After the growth rate of the two indicators of sales revenue and total profit of chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing products peaked in 2004, it is expected that the downward trend of 2005 will continue for the whole year of 2006, and it may turn into negative growth in the future. Since 2006, changes in market supply and demand patterns have caused related product prices to rebound from the second quarter. However, as the basic chemical industry uses production costs as the core competition factor, as the production capacity of low-cost manufacturers continues to expand, the industry equilibrium product prices will continue to decline in the future.