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I. Recognition of the sharp rise in domestic steel market prices this year 1. Economic prosperity and rigid market demand â— The steady and rapid growth of the national economy is the fundamental driving force for the price increase in the steel market.
In the first quarter of 2008, China’s economic growth was 10.6%. Although the snow growth affected the growth rate by 1.1 percentage points from the same period of last year, it still maintained a growth rate of more than 10% for nine quarters, and the national economy showed steady and rapid growth. among them:
Investment in fixed assets maintained rapid growth. From January to April 2008, fixed asset investment reached 284.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, and an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, real estate development investment reached 695.2 billion yuan, an increase of 32.1%, an acceleration of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year.
Industrial production maintained a high level of growth. Despite the snowstorm and power shortages, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.3% year-on-year from January to April 2008, which was 1.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Among them, in April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.7% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 1.7 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year (if deduction was not comparable, the growth rate was roughly the same as last month, and Year in the same month).
Domestic consumption has increased significantly. From January to April 2008, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.6697 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% (in April, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 814.2 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0% year-on-year), which was 5.9 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
Foreign trade exports first suppressed and then rose. From January to April 2008, foreign trade exports reached US$424.417 billion, an increase of 21.5%, down 6 percentage points, and imports of US$366.573 billion, up 27.9%, accelerating 8.8 percentage points. The trade surplus was USD 57.98 billion, a decrease of USD 5.312 billion from the same period last year. On a monthly basis, foreign trade exports have basically returned to normal levels in March and April except that foreign trade exports in February only increased by 6.5% year-on-year.
At the same time, the domestic steel downstream industry also maintained a relatively rapid growth. In the machinery industry, the value added of general equipment manufacturing increased by 22.5% in the first quarter, 20.4% in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, and 21.7% in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. In the shipbuilding industry, the total amount of civil ship completed in the first quarter was 4,637,500 gt. The growth rate was 69.5%; the production of automobiles in the first quarter was 2,581,800, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year; the first quarter of container exports was 700,000, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year; in the home appliance industry, the output of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners in the first quarter was 9,640,600 and 1041.9 respectively. Million units and 24.463 million units were up 8.4%, 16.4% and 15.8% respectively year-on-year.
The current domestic steel market entered a sensitive period and the steel price oscillated in the second half of the year
Since 2008, the domestic steel market price has generally risen sharply, especially in February and April after the Spring Festival. The domestic steel market price has soared. As of May 16, 2008, the average price of 6.5mmQ235 high line in 28 major domestic markets was 5,931 yuan/ton, up by 1,454 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; 20mmHRB335 rebar was 5,668 yuan/ton, up by 1,215 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; 20mmQ235 Medium board 6549 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year rose 1480 yuan / ton; 5.75mmQ235 hot rolled coil 5854 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year rose 1150 yuan / ton, 1.0mmSPCC cold rolled coil 6944 yuan / ton, up 1383 yuan over the beginning of the year /Ton. In addition to cold rolling, the market price of most steel products has reached a record high. How to understand the current round of steel market prices rose sharply? How will the domestic steel market evolve in the future? It has become a topic of common concern among the industry. In this regard, the author will discuss several points of view for the reference of colleagues in the industry.