The two-month negative growth in production and sales

The results of the June private car line auction in Shanghai on the 18th showed that the average price of this month exceeded 48,800 yuan, hitting a new high since 2008. However, behind the "heat" of the private car license auction, it is the embarrassment of continuous decline in automobile production and sales.

The year-on-year decline in sales of production and sales expanded According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Automobile Association), China’s automobile production and sales volume has been negative for the second consecutive month in May after the first year-on-year decline in 27 months since the financial crisis occurred in April. . In the industry's view, if the April data only indicates that the industry has an inflection point, then the May data mean that, despite seasonal factors, the industry's downward trend has been confirmed.

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, China's total production of automobiles was 1,348,900 in May, with sales of 1,382,800 units, down 4.89% and 3.98% from the same period of last year, and negative growth for the second consecutive month.

In April, the number of automobile production and sales volume was 1.5353 million and 1.5520 million vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85% and 0.25% respectively. This is the first negative growth in 27 months since the high growth of the industry in 2009 and 2010, and it is also the first negative growth since the financial crisis in China after the automotive industry recovered.

The data for May showed that the year-on-year decline in automobile production and sales continued to expand: The year-on-year decline in production volume expanded from less than 2% in April to nearly 5%, and sales volume evolved from almost flat to almost 4%, and the decline rate has significantly increased.

Seasonal impact is not the main cause It is worth noting that the second quarter of each year is the off-season of the auto industry. Is the downturn in April and May this year only a normal seasonal fluctuation of the industry, or is it the result of the pessimistic expectation being amplified by the withdrawal of preferential policies in the industry? In response, the industry gave a negative answer.

Indeed, after the peak monthly sales in the second and third months of the year, the monthly sales of cars will be declining month by month. It will not be until September and October that the "Golden September, Silver, and Ten Years" will show signs of improvement. However, the sales volume in the last two months has fallen far more than the same period in history. In April this year, the sales volume fell by more than 15% from the previous month, which is the highest since 2003; in May, the chain fell by 11% compared with 5 in 2008-2010. In the month, the same indicator data was 9.4%, 2.9% and 7.5% respectively.

China Automobile Association said that in addition to seasonal fluctuations, there are several major factors leading to negative growth for two consecutive months, namely, the withdrawal of preferential policies such as purchase tax, national macro-control, rising fuel prices, implementation of some urban blockade restrictions, fuel consumption Access policy implementation, Japan earthquake affected industrial chain supply.

As the industry as a whole falls, the performance of companies in the industry chain is naturally affected. The quarterly report of the listed car companies has shown that the performance of related companies has been sluggish and the gross profit margin has declined. However, the latest data show that this situation has not yet been significantly improved.

According to relevant data from the China Automobile Association, in the first four months of this year, 17 key enterprises in the industry have completed a total industrial added value of 150.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 4.72 percentage points lower than the cumulative value of January-March; cumulative total industrial output value of 671.372 billion yuan Yuan, the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 3.21 percentage points over the first three months; cumulative operating income reached 773.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate decreased by 2.77 percentage points from the cumulative value of the previous three months. In terms of profits, 6 out of 17 companies experienced negative growth in profits.

The day of the dealer is also not too bad. A dealer in Shanghai told reporters that the current stock ratio (inventory to sales ratio) has been as high as 1.5-1.6, much higher than the reasonable 1.1-1.2, if it grows to 1.9, dealers will be unbearable. "The stock market is not good, prices are rising, and consumers are more hesitant to buy a car." The dealer said that the recent car sales are very bleak.