Jia Xinguang: Predicting the Automotive Market Cannot Be Conjectured

An article in the Financial Times entitled "Higher Growth in China's Automobile Sales Contrarian" said: "Although the overall economic situation is weak, car sales have continued to prosper. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, passenger cars were used in the first half of this year. Channel sales increased by 7.1% year-on-year.” The reporter pointed out: “The China Automobile Association also acknowledges that the inventory of distributors is on an upward trend. As the monthly sales figures of China Automotive Industry Association reflect the sales volume for distributors, the growth is strong. The data is not directly related to consumer demand.” The auto industry has grown faster than steel and other industries. From this perspective, the situation is good.

However, many domestic media reports reflect that dealers are in a very difficult position. According to a survey conducted by the National Information Center, the inventory depth of the whole industry at the end of May was 1.3 (normal level was 1-1.5 level), but the inventory of independent brand dealers was around 2.1. According to the data from China Import & Export Automobile Trading Co., Ltd., the imported car inventory coefficient reached 2.7. So for distributors, inventory pressure is still relatively large, and a considerable percentage of dealers have suffered losses.

In late May, luxury brand car dealers launched a new round of price cuts, such as the Mercedes-Benz S-class drop has reached 200,000 yuan. This shows that the once very hot luxury car market began to cool down, and this price reduction will impact the mid- to high-class car market, and may affect the A-class car market.

Guangzhou limited car has a strong psychological impact on the car market, although the impact on the auto market this year will not be too big, but it is certainly negative, and it is difficult to determine whether there will be other cities to follow up. However, one thing is certain: After the rapid development in 2009 and 2010, the number of cars in most cities has increased dramatically, road congestion has increased, and the impact of PM2.5 has also become prominent. Under such circumstances, it will be difficult to introduce policies that simply stimulate the amount of auto consumption, and the demand for energy-saving and emission-reduction will become higher and higher.

On the other hand, automobile production and sales in the first half of the year increased by 4.08% and 2.93% respectively. The production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 8.59% and 10.40% year-on-year. This shows that the commercial vehicle market situation has not improved, and it is difficult to see a dramatic reversal in the second half of the year.

According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 13, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% year-on-year, 7.6% in the second quarter, and fell below 8%. After three years, the economic growth rate returned to below 8% again. . The business climate index in the second quarter of this year fell by 0.4 points from the first quarter, and the recent economic downturn was relatively high. The State Council emphasized the importance of steady growth.

Some people hope that the country will once again introduce economic stimulus policies, which is unrealistic now. Foreign sources speculate that the government may launch economic stimulus measures of 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan. However, as China's economic scale has increased by 60 percent from 2008, the net effect of stimulus measures will be greatly reduced. Some economists have calculated that if the scale of stimulus is 1 trillion yuan, the net effect will be adjusted to the economic scale, and its net effect will be about 1/10 of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus in 2008.

Some media published the conjecture of the auto market in the second half of the year, asserting that "without relying on policy stimulus, China's auto industry has shown signs of recovery." But in fact, the analysis of the automotive market should be based on a large number of market research and analysis, but not subjective guesses. Now that the auto industry has its own brand with weak competitiveness, difficult adjustment of industrial structure, low standards for environmental protection and energy conservation, and weaker profitability of state-owned enterprises, it urgently needs to be resolved. Therefore, it should not emphasize purely quantitative growth.