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Since the beginning of this year, the commercial vehicle market in China has continued to be sluggish. In the first three quarters, the sales contribution of commercial vehicles to the automotive market was reduced to 32.23%, and the pattern of commercial vehicles leading the Chinese auto market has finally been broken. How to rationally look at the current performance of the commercial vehicle market and the future competition situation? To this end, the reporter Huang Chenglin, author of the "Commercial Conditions" of the commercial vehicle of the pulse, put forward his own unique insights. Among them, “The Structural Changes of the Commercial Vehicle Market†is inspired by the new statistical classification of the industry. It focuses on the analysis of the overall trend of changes in the overall structure of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles in the entire automotive market. The commercial vehicle market is heavy, medium, light, micro, and linked. The game of the truck market, the constraints of the capacity of the passenger car market, and the overall development of the commercial vehicle industry.
China's auto industry is based on commercial vehicles. For many years, commercial vehicles have been the driving force in the Chinese auto market. In recent years, with the overall rapid growth of China's auto market and the fierce follow-up of the passenger car market, commercial vehicles still maintain a market contribution of more than 50%. In 2003, the total sales of goods vehicles and passenger cars nationwide reached 2.4192 million, and the sales volume of cars was 1.917 million. In 2004, the total sales of goods vehicles and passenger cars were 2,744,600, and the sales of cars were 2,326.5 thousand. However, in 2005, the market structure of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles finally caused qualitative changes due to continuous quantitative changes. From January to September, the country’s total auto sales were 4,136,200, of which 1,333,300 were commercial vehicles and 2,803,200 were passenger cars, and the sales contribution of commercial vehicles to the automotive market was reduced to 32.23%. Commercial vehicles The pattern leading the Chinese auto market has finally been broken.
Commercial Vehicles: Inspiration from the New Taxonomy of Automotive Statistics that Must Suffer From Structural Changes
Since January 2005, the automotive industry has implemented a new statistical classification. Automobiles are classified into two categories: commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles. Everyone originally thought that the industry automobile statistics were simplified. Did not think that behind the two major categories, it is 9 sub-categories, 9 sub-categories can be divided into a number of sub-categories. Passenger cars derive basic models, MPVs, SUVs and crossover models; commercial vehicles derive "new five categories" such as trucks, passenger cars, semi-trailer tractors, non-integrated trucks, and non-completed passenger vehicles. The new five categories are subdivided again: trucks are divided into heavy trucks, medium trucks, light trucks, and minivans; passenger cars are divided into large passenger cars, medium passenger cars, and light passenger cars; semitrailer tractors are divided into those that have a total mass of 25 tons or less; 25 tons of less than or equal to 40 tons, more than 40 tons; trucks non-complete vehicles and passenger vehicles are not complete vehicles, but also with reference to the corresponding vehicle is subdivided. As a result, commercial vehicles are subdivided into nearly 20 subcategories. The new classification makes people feel "confused" and complicated. In fact, the inadequacy of the new classification of commercial vehicles reflects the lack of research on commercial vehicle market segments. This classification seems to be "complicated", but in reality it is much simpler than the intense competition in the market, the diversification of customer demands, and the differentiation of regional markets. Imagine if you have subdivided statistics on a wide variety of special vehicles and special vehicles. What will be a mixed situation? In fact, the re-division of the two major categories of vehicles precisely reflects the new trend of the automotive market demand. The subdivision of commercial vehicles provides us with a brand new market structure. Each small subcategory may be a broad market space. There is no shortage of business opportunities, and auto companies should get new inspiration from the new classification.
The major reversal of the two major types of structures.
According to the new two major categories, if passenger cars and passenger cars are counted as commercial vehicles and passenger cars are regarded as passenger cars before 2004, it is not difficult to see that since 1999, commercial vehicles have occupied an absolute market share in the automotive market. The passenger car is not too late to catch up with it. The sales structure changes year by year and finally changes from quantitative to qualitative change. In 1999, the sales structure of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles was 69:31. By September 2005, it had evolved to 32:68, and the sales structure of the two major categories of automobiles had a fundamental and major reversal. Commercial vehicles and passenger cars are like the two actors who are always active on the car stage (just like the protagonists and protagonists played by Chen Peisi and Zhu Shimao). They have always been the protagonists of commercial vehicles and suddenly become supporting actors. This qualitative change means that the overall demand structure of the Chinese automotive market has undergone fundamental changes. With the development of the country’s economy and the continuous increase in residents’ income, overall, the commercial nature of the automobile is weakening and passenger use is increasing. This is also a pattern of international automobile development. This shows that the Chinese automobile market is merging with the international market. The overall structural adjustment of the automobile has resulted in the replacement of the “protagonist†position of commercial vehicles. Commercial vehicles must withstand the pain of change.
The logical deduction of the binary pattern.
Although the market pattern of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles has undergone a fundamental change, the product definition, market positioning, and use value of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles are quite different and cannot be mutually replaced. Therefore, the "binary pattern" of commercial vehicles and passenger cars in the automotive market will not change. From the perspective of changes in market share, commercial vehicles are in transition from the protagonist to the supporting role. How to play a supporting role in the Chinese automobile market for commercial vehicles that have played a protagonist for many years remains to be seen.
In fact, commercial vehicles weigh heavily on “commercial useâ€, one for cargo and two for passengers. Therefore, commercial vehicles can still be analyzed from the perspectives of two trucks and buses.
Trucks: Heavy, medium, light, micro, and hanging market games are no longer the traditional heavy, medium, and light market competitions for trucks (including non-integrated vehicles), but heavy, medium, and Light, micro, hanging market game.
Why heavy truck weight?
Since 2000, heavy-duty trucks ("heavy trucks") have become the main models driving the surge in commercial vehicles. In 2002, heavy truck sales surpassed Zhongka for the first time. The development of the entire truck market towards heavy-duty and light-duty has become increasingly clear. In 2004, the industry sold 370,795 heavy trucks, an increase of 44.98% year-on-year. The heavy-duty vehicle market has experienced a rapid release for nearly five years and the market capacity has rapidly expanded. In 2005, under the influence of the national macro-control, fuel price hikes, and limited load control, the heavy-duty truck market experienced the first negative growth in eight years. From January to September, 52,835 heavy trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 30.39%. Heavy-duty chassis sold 90,203 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 28.81%. Heavy trucks fell heavily into the adjustment period. In spite of this, the heavy-duty truck market still shows its own characteristics: First, the market concentration is still high, and the market concentration of the top 6 companies in sales from January to September reaches 92.28%. Second, the heavy-duty card market has risen. Anhui Valin, Jianghuai Gefa, and Hubei Sanhuan, etc., are making rapid progress, exerting heavy pressure on the slowdown heavy truck market; In the “stage†stage, high-end heavy trucks that are safe, environmentally-friendly, energy-efficient, high-tech, low-fuel-consuming, large-tonnage, high-powered, and suitable for specialized transportation will become the mainstream of market development.
The card has been opened.
Since 1997, the China Card market has been in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the total market volume has fallen on the 150,000 vehicles. However, if China Card can grasp the pulse of the western market during the adjustment period, adjust the product structure, and break through the constraints of the “bayonetâ€, there is still room for competition in the market.
In 2004, 175,644 vehicles in the industry were sold, an increase of 28.79% year-on-year. From January to August 2005, the total sales of finished vehicles and chassis in the smoked cards totaled 137,639 vehicles, an increase of 25.86% year-on-year. Although it cannot be asserted that the Chinese card market has started to “rebelâ€, it can be said that the “card slot†in the card market is being opened. In particular, the unique characteristics exhibited by the China Card Market make people feel bullish on the outlook for China Card. First, the China Card Market broke the monopoly and its competitiveness increased. The China Card Industry is an area where China’s auto industry has the capacity for independent development. During the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, the market of the China Card did not gradually increase its market concentration as other models, but instead exhibited the fragmentation effect, and the market share was gradually divided. From 12 in 1999 to 18 in 2005, it is expected that in the next few years, there will be many powerful agricultural vehicle companies involved in the China Card and light truck markets; Second, the China Card market presents diversity, differentiation and The personalized competition pattern, the western market and the specific regional market are still the focus of the competition among the Chinese card companies. Third, the modified cars, special vehicles and special vehicles will occupy an important position in the card market.
Light trucks should not be underestimated.
From January to September 2005, the industry sold 559,778 light trucks, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and light truck chassis sales were 77,749 units, an increase of 55.33% year-on-year. Not only did sales increase more than heavy trucks and medium trucks, but also the absolute sales amount accounted for trucks. With the sales volume of 64.69% and 33.14% of the chassis of trucks, light trucks have a decisive position in the truck market. Light trucks will go along with the broader market, maintaining a certain growth trend, and its base number still dominates the truck market. First, the trend of heavy-duty and light-duty development of trucks will further promote the expansion of the light-duty truck market. Second, light-duty trucks are small in size and flexible in transportation. They have obvious advantages in the transportation of a large number of short-distance scattered goods; In order to solve urban traffic and pollution problems, large and medium-sized cities have increased their restrictions on medium and heavy trucks and promoted the demand for high-end light trucks. Fourthly, the construction of township and township highways has promoted the improvement of light trucks, especially the country’s compulsory retirement of agricultural vehicles and emissions. The requirements of the standards will enable the market potential of low-end light trucks to be released. The light truck market will have a diversified demand, and regional demand for high, medium, and low-end product demand will change, and the adjustment of light truck product mix will be promoted.
The micro card is not weak.
In 2004, the industry sold 171,451 micro-cards, a year-on-year increase of 24.96%. Its sales volume and increase were almost the same as that of China Card. From January to September 2005, the industry micro-card sales reached 160,440 units, an increase of 13.68% year-on-year. The chassis sales were 7545 units, an increase of 113.26% year-on-year, and the highest increase was in the sales of trucks and chassis. Obviously minivans are not weak, but there is considerable market space. In particular, the lower price and the flexibility of transportation have the market advantage of replacing agricultural vehicles. From the development trend, mini-trucks may become another market after the light trucks, which can be used for heavy trucks.
Semi-linked still need to worry about.
From January to September 2005, the country's semitrailer tractors sold 41,569 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 46.04%, of which, 40 tons of semi-trailer tractors under 25 tons were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 89.23% and sales of 25-40 tons of 28,859 vehicles. A year-on-year decrease of 6.36%, sales of more than 40 tons of 8,689 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%. Semi-trailer tractors are commercial vehicles equipped with special devices for hauling semi-trailers. In the old category, semi-trailer tractors were included in the statistics for trucks (mainly heavy trucks); this year, the new categories are listed separately as a large category of commercial vehicles. It should be said that the semi-trailer trucks that have just been separated from statistics have faced serious market setbacks in the first years of the year, which are mainly due to factors such as the country’s macroeconomic controls and fuel price increases. From September, 2511 semitrailer tractors were produced, a 29.50% increase from the previous period; sales of 3341 units, an increase of 36.31% from the previous period, seemed to show signs of recovery. However, semi-trailer tractors have a certain market space as a special-purpose vehicle or special-purpose vehicle in a certain sense. With the development of highways, ports, docks and logistics, semi-trailer tractors will develop toward specialization and large tonnage.
It should be noted that as a means of production, trucks have a strong correlation with the country's GDP growth. According to estimates, the current number of trucks held in China is 10 million. According to China's economic growth rate, the number of loaded trucks will increase at least twice as much as it does now. From the general trend, in line with economic growth, it is expected that trucks will continue to grow for 10 years.