Tire Price: Tire prices continue to bottom out and are difficult to reverse in the first half of 2015.
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1. Oversupply is the main driving force behind the price. After more than 10 years of rapid development, especially after the investment blowout in the past two years, China’s tires have a serious structural excess, whether it is a car tire or a truck tire, that is, there is a surplus of medium and low-grade homogenized tires, and there are still gaps in high-end and green tires. . Stocks are generally produced in 1.5 to 2 months. The operating rate of tire companies continued to fall, dropping to the low point of the year. China's tire concentration is relatively low, low operating rates and high inventory are easy for companies to let the market let prices, and each other down, resulting in a downward price.
2. There is still room for the price to fall. The price of natural rubber has dropped from nearly 36,000 yuan/ton in May 2011 to nearly 13,000 yuan/ton now, with a drop of 63.9%. During the same period, tire prices also showed a downward trend. The car tire price index fell by 25.5%, the truck tire price index fell by 30.98%, and natural rubber accounted for nearly 50% of the total tire cost. From the analysis of tire cost, the price of Chinese car tires is still about 5%. The down space, the truck tire drop space is relatively small, about 1% to 2%. This is also the main reason why the price of car tires has dropped significantly more than truck tires.
3. The price decline will continue for a while. There is a certain time difference between the cost of raw materials such as rubber and the downstream tire industry. From the traditional experience, this time difference is more than 6 months. Now rubber is still going to bottom out, at most in the bottom area, rubber prices have not yet shown signs of reversal. According to experience, it will take more than six months for China's tire prices to stabilize or rise upward. Despite the arrival of the traditional Spring Festival, traffic and transportation peaks, the demand for tires increases, and the decline in tire prices will decrease, but the decline is still the main tone.
Tire products: new tire products are continuously introduced, and technology added value becomes the main competitiveness of products.
According to the drafts released by major exhibitions and tire companies in 2014, tire companies will launch new tires for market segments in 2015. For example, Michelin's automatic repair tires have also been confirmed to land on the market in 2015, while the Michelin Tweel non-pneumatic tires have been mass-produced. In addition to airless tires, Bridgestone also introduced narrow tire technology, which is a technology that runs counter to airless. In view of the efforts of domestic tire companies in research and development in 2014, in 2015, domestic tire companies will also compete fiercely with foreign tire companies in the original matching and replacement markets, such as Fengshen tires, exquisite tires, and twin-gun tires. Despite the gap between domestic tire product technology and foreign companies, in terms of its development process, domestic tire companies can achieve greater progress in 2015.
Tire E-commerce: E-commerce is still hot, online to solve the price offline solution service
In 2015, the tire e-commerce heat will continue to rise, but due to fewer types of online tires, the problems of installation and service will not be solved. Therefore, the cooperation mode of active joint manufacturers and offline installation points will be active in 2015. Carry out. However, the problem that comes with it is that the number of tires entering the e-commerce platform is increasing, and the price war in the e-commerce sector will become more intense. Whether it is e-commerce, manufacturers or distributors, the seamless integration of online and offline integration will be the direction that needs to be worked out in 2015.
Tire Dealer: Product advantages are reduced, service is the key to success
Profitability is the number one priority, and dealers who are dying in tire sales in 2015 should stop.
In 2015, tire dealers will be more closely linked to manufacturers, but as tire prices fall and competition pressures increase, dealers will earn less and less profit from tire products alone. Secondly, due to the development of tire e-commerce, online and offline cooperation and win-win mode will become a good choice for dealers and retailers. Third, as tire products bring less profit to dealers and the potential of the automotive aftermarket continues to expand, increasing service content and enriching product categories will become the future trend of tire dealers and retailers. Fourth, tire dealers need to increase their influence in the channel through media and social interaction platforms.
Tire manufacturers: the survival of the fittest, manufacturers will eat big fish
At present, the tire factory can be roughly divided into three levels; the first echelon is controlled by Bridgestone, Michelin, Goodyear and other international global hegemons. The second echelon is an internationally competitive brand such as Jiatong and Toyo. Hankook, etc., the third echelon is a factory with some historical history in China, such as Fengshen, Taikaiying, Shuangqian, etc. The other fourth echelon is the rising-looking manufacturer, especially the factory workshop group represented by Shandong Dongying. .
In terms of market trends, it is inevitable that large fish in the tire industry will eat small fish. There are usually several forms: mergers and acquisitions (whoever buys who is not good, will definitely disappear); some factories become foundries (similar to OEM); some even become wholesalers' foundries; For example, Jinyu and Shengtai exchange shares, etc.).
General trends in the tire industry in 2015 and in the future
In 2015, tire marketing will shift from high price and high gross profit to low unit price and high possession; many traditional channels and merchants will disappear due to future changes; integration of industry and finance, integration of goods and trade, and service marketing will be the main ways of profit. Some experts predict that the channel level of big brands will be further reduced, and the value of retailers will be further enhanced, thanks to the strong appeal of brands in consumers and the support and distribution services of many brand dealerships nationwide. The vendor-led e-commerce platform will develop rapidly. At the same time, the tire trading service type platform will also have great development opportunities. Because there are many brands of Chinese tire manufacturers, the weak brands can only survive and develop by significantly shortening the channel links, and this also provides opportunities for the intermediary platform.