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According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, domestic refined oil products will usher in a price adjustment window on the evening of the 9th. A number of analysts believe that taking into account factors such as continued year-on-year increase in CPI, the possibility of delay in this round of price adjustment is unlikely. It is expected that the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices will be adjusted on the 10th, and the rate of increase may be around 450 yuan per ton. For a period of time in the future, as the CPI pressure is gradually reduced, as long as the international crude oil price does not exceed the price limit set by the pricing mechanism, it is expected that whether the prices rise or fall in the later period, the possibility of domestic gasoline and diesel prices adjusting in time according to the pricing mechanism will gradually increase.
International oil prices have rebounded sharply Since June 22th, international crude oil prices have rebounded strongly due to a series of factors including economic stimulus plans from Europe and the United States, Iran’s tight economic situation, and improved economic data in the United States. As of August 7, Brent Crude oil prices rebounded from the lowest of US$89.67/barrel to US$110/barrel, a rebound rate of 22.7%; US crude oil prices rose from the lowest of US$77.69/barrel to US$93.45/barrel, a rebound rate of 20.3%.
The data released by the Xinhua News Agency’s oil price system on the 8th showed that on August 7, the average moving price of crude oil in the three places (Dubai, Brent, and Xinta) was 6.75%. If the international oil price remains at the current price level, the rate of change in crude oil prices in the three places will be close to 7.5% on the 9th, and the theoretical price increase of domestic refined oil prices should be around 500 yuan per ton.
According to Fu Shaohua, a senior economic analyst at Xinhua News Agency, the domestic CPI continued to decline, opening up the space for gasoline and diesel prices, and continued to suffer losses in the second quarter. The main refineries have gradually reduced production, sales, and sales. Due to the recent strong rebound in crude oil prices, the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel continue to increase, and the inventory of gasoline, diesel and gasoline has also declined rapidly. Therefore, on the day of the opening of the domestic refined oil price adjustment window on August 9th, the prices of gasoline and diesel oil may be raised in time on the 10th, and the increase is expected to be 400-450 yuan per ton.
Zhuo Chuang analyst Chen Qing expects that the refined oil price adjustment window will open on the 9th. Due to the current low inflation pressure, in the previous "three consecutive falls", the main refinery losses are more serious, and the peak demand is coming in the second half of the year, in order to ensure the main refinery profits and production enthusiasm, the price adjustment It is expected to be carried out in the early hours of the 10th and is expected to increase by 350-400 yuan per ton.
The possibility of oil shortage during the year Xiao Fu Shaohua analyzed that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism has a significant effect on smoothing and delaying the international crude oil price. Even if the current price is increased by 450 yuan per ton, the price of gasoline and diesel will only be reduced three consecutive times. The 35% and 37% of 1280 yuan and 1,220 yuan were far below the recovery of international oil prices.
Taking into account the growing tension in Iran may continue to push up oil prices, and this year, refinery losses are more serious, especially the current decline in CPI, gasoline and diesel prices are the most taboo CPI pressure greatly reduced, it is expected that as long as the international crude oil prices do not exceed the pricing The price limit set by the mechanism, whether it is up or down in the later period, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be adjusted in time, do not rule out the possibility of oil prices "8 yuan era" to reproduce.
Han Yinyuan, an analyst with Treasure Island, a large-product e-commerce platform, told the China Securities Journal that for the basic industry, the most direct impact of the increase in the price of oil is undoubtedly to increase costs, with the most obvious impact on logistics, transportation, warehousing, and express delivery industries. However, based on the limited weight of oil prices in the CPI index, the increase in oil prices has little direct impact on the CPI.
In view of the tightening situation of refined oil supply in some provinces, Chen Qing believes that this situation is mostly man-made. The main unit's control and sales are mainly for the purpose of pursuing profits, to make up for the losses in the “three consecutive fallsâ€, while the oil prices are raised as scheduled. After that, the control will be released. In addition, the slowdown in domestic economic growth in the first half of the year has led to the suppression of demand for refined oil products, which has led to a higher inventory pressure. Taken together, the “oil shortage†is unlikely during the year.