Great Wall Changan has backed 200,000 points worth of “integral debts.” Sixty percent of joint venture car companies have zero new energy points.

(Source: Panoramic Vision)

In April, the average assessment of the average fuel consumption in the dual-point auto (average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points) system is about to start, and in 2019, another important point - the assessment of new energy points It will also begin.

In the sense of urgency of countdown, four ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly issued the “2016 Annual Table of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integrity for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Corporations”. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had published the “2016 average annual fuel consumption of passenger vehicle companies” in April 2017, but included the new energy score data of auto companies, which is the first official data released by the company.

The table shows that of the 124 passenger car companies in China in 2016, the rate of compliance with the average fuel consumption points was 64.23%. A total of 80 companies met the standards, and 44 companies did not meet the standards. For new energy points, 54 The car companies have points, and the score of 70 car companies is zero. Among the 124 passenger car companies, only 46 car companies have double positive points. There are 36 car companies with negative fuel consumption points and zero new energy points.

China’s largest SUV manufacturer, Great Wall Motors (601633.SH), has a negative score of 234,500 points, ranking top among non-compliance companies with average fuel consumption, followed by Chang’an Automobile (000625.SZ), SAIC-GM’s Beisheng, and Cheetah. The vehicle's fuel consumption negative points also exceed 100,000 points, but except for Changan Automobile, other car companies have very few new energy points. It is worth noting that the 2016 double-indicator status table announced by the ministries and commissions is not for reference only, but it is formally announced that the negative-integrated companies such as Great Wall Motors have already carried the first “integral debt” that must be compensated.

As early as November 2, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Work Related to the Administration of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles in 2016 and 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly stated the requirements for satisfaction: the average value generated by automobile companies in 2016 The negative points of fuel consumption must be compensated to zero; before the negative integral offset, the new products whose fuel consumption is not up to the standard will not be able to reach the product list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

This means that Great Wall Motor currently has to figure out how to compensate for 234.5 thousand points. Although Great Wall Motors has already acquired a 25% equity interest in Hebei Yujie Vehicle Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Yuejie”), a low-speed electric vehicle company, it has obtained affiliates’ equity, but its main product, the low-speed electric vehicle, still cannot earn points. Therefore, Yu Jie can only provide Great Wall Motor's 2003 new energy points in 2016. The joint-venture electric vehicle project between Great Wall Motors and BMW was finalized at the beginning of this year and was put into operation by the end of 2019. Obviously, if no other channels can be found to compensate for the negative points of fuel consumption, Great Wall Motors will need to spend huge sums to purchase points to resolve the risk of more products failing the catalogue.

In addition, different from the early investment in new energy fields by autonomous vehicle companies, the situation of joint venture car enterprises is severe. Of the 33 joint-venture car companies that had reached the 2016 score table, although most of the fuel consumption was up to standard, 20 new energy points were zero, and the remaining 13 new energy points were also very few. Companies such as VW, GM, and Toyota’s joint ventures in China are facing the challenge of rocketing new energy points to more than 100,000 or even hundreds of thousands of minutes before 2019.

However, for auto companies such as BYD and BAIC that have ample points, such as new energy, it indicates that the first barrel of gold from new energy point trading is expected to enter the account soon.

Great Wall Motor's "integral debt": 50,000-80,000 electric cars need to offset negative points

While SUVs bring large sums of money to Chinese car companies, they also pay a high price. The average fuel consumption does not reach the list, SUV leader Great Wall Motors topped the list. In 2016, Great Wall Motor produced a total of 973,100 passenger cars, including 73 new energy vehicles (not indicated as a means of obtaining), with an average fuel consumption negative score of 234,500; followed by Changan Automobile (Changan Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.), with an average of Fuel consumption points were negative 229,400 points. In 2016, sales of Changan SUVs increased by 52%. The third was SAIC-GM-Shenyang (Beisheng), which also produced SUVs, with negative points reaching 125,000.

There are more than 100,000 negative integration gaps and off-road car companies Cheetah, negative points in the 50,000 to 100,000 points followed by Sichuan FAW Toyota, Changan Ford, GAC Fiat, Brilliance Jinbei, Southeast Automotive, Jaguar Land Rover China. The negative scores of fuel consumption of the above nine car companies have exceeded the sum of new energy scores of all the passenger car companies in the year of 989,500. Compared with Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile Co., Ltd., which has a large number of affiliates, is relatively easy to overcome difficulties.

Although Great Wall Motor has already acquired Yu Jie in July 2017, it cooperated with Bao Motor in February 2018, but it is still too slow. In the November 2017 notification, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had already started the assessment of the average amount of fuel consumption in advance. The notice pointed out that the company must pay zero (plus or minus) when assessing the 2017 points. If it does not meet the criteria, it will need to adjust the passenger car production or import plan. Otherwise, it will not be able to enter the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. 》

At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also stipulates that “2013-2016 annual average company fuel consumption points will be carried forward once every time, and they must be multiplied by 80% and the carry-forward period should not exceed three years. 2016 New Energy Vehicles One year can be carried forward in equal terms." In other words, including negative credits of over 200,000 yuan for Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile, all the negative points for fuel consumption in 2016 must be resolved as soon as possible. This is particularly difficult for Great Wall Motors. Due to the fact that SUV is the main industry, it is expected that Great Wall Motor will have difficulty to carry forward the positive points for 2013-2015, and it is expected that there will be more negative points in 2017 and 2018. The joint-venture electric vehicle project with BMW was not put into operation until the end of 2019. Therefore, Great Wall Motor could only receive points from the affiliate company, Jiechi, for offsetting the negative points of fuel consumption according to the new energy score of 1:1.

However, unfortunately, the data of four ministries and commissions showed that Yu Jie, which is mainly engaged in low-speed electric vehicles, produced 110,000 electric vehicles in 2016, but only 753 can calculate points and received a total of 2003 new energy points, which also means Unsuccessful low-speed electric vehicles that cannot reach the list cannot get new energy points, and Yu Jie’s average fuel consumption points are only 4343 points. In July 2017, Yujie obtained the qualification for the production of new energy cars, and the pace of the transition from low-speed electric vehicle enterprises to higher-tech new energy automobile companies has also begun to accelerate. The best expectation is that Yu Jie can contribute more effective new energy points to Great Wall Motor in the next year or two.

Not only in 2016, but by the end of 2020, Great Wall Motor and BMW's electric joint ventures will be mass-produced. During this period, Great Wall Motors will face an integration dilemma. Calculated on a 3-5-point scale for each electric vehicle, Great Wall Motor’s negative revenue of 234,500 fuel consumption in 2016 will require Yu Jie’s production of 50,000-80,000 electric vehicles to be able to reach the catalog to be compensated. Years need more.

In addition to offsetting the negative points of fuel consumption, Great Wall Motor, Changan and other fuel vehicle companies must also face the first assessment of new energy points in 2019. According to the "Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Consumption of Fuel Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles for Passenger Vehicle Enterprises" (hereinafter referred to as the "Double-integration Approach") released in September 2017, the passenger car enterprises with a traditional fuel vehicle production volume exceeding 30,000 vehicles are The proportion of new energy vehicles in 2019 and 2020 will be 10% and 12% of the production volume, respectively.

Taking Great Wall Motors as an example, its sales in 2017 will be 1.07 million units. Its sales target in 2018 will be 1.16 million units. It is conservatively predicted that it will be 1.25 million units in 2019 and balance between production and sales. That is, Great Wall Motor will firstly obtain 125,000 new energy vehicles in 2019. In order to achieve the standard, an electric vehicle is calculated at 3-5 minutes, which means that Yu Jie produces 30,000-40,000 electric vehicles to meet its new energy standard. Then use more electric vehicles to offset the negative points of fuel consumption.

From the perspectives of cost, profitability, and market acceptance, it is difficult for Yu Jie to shift its production focus from low-speed electric vehicles where he is good at, to the production of mini electric vehicles, and to produce more than 100,000 vehicles a year. If Great Wall Motor had to resort to the last resort - to buy points from the market openly, according to the current estimate of a transaction price of several hundred dollars to several thousand dollars, this would undoubtedly be a huge expense.

60% of joint venture car companies have zero new energy points

The double-indicator status table also shows that the joint venture auto makers are under more pressure to achieve new energy credits. Of the 33 joint-venture car companies that published data, 20 had zero new energy points, including SAIC-VW, FAW-Toyota, SAIC-GM, Honda’s two joint ventures, PSA’s two joint ventures, Chang’an Ford, Almost all of the major joint-venture car makers, including Beijing’s Mercedes, have only a few sporadic points.

In terms of specific brands, although the two joint venture car companies in China are all positive points for fuel consumption, the new energy credits are almost blank. SAIC General Motors' fuel consumption is positive, but the new energy score is only a symbolic 418 points. The subsidiaries Dongyue and Beisheng New Energy scores are all zero, and Beisheng Company has a higher negative balance of fuels that need to be compensated.

BMW's performance in new energy is relatively positive. In 2016, BMW China has already imported 1001 new energy vehicles from China, gaining 3,550 points of new energy that can be used for trading. This figure is unique among multinational car companies in China, and BMW Brilliance also has new energy points. The new energy points for Mercedes-Benz companies in China are all zero.

In addition, the pressure is even greater on the nine joint ventures that need to offset negative fuel mileage, and seven of them have zero new energy points. The seven joint ventures were SAIC-GM-Wuling Beisheng, Sichuan FAW Toyota, Changan Ford, GAC Fiat, GAC Mitsubishi, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Chery Jaguar Land Rover, with negative scores ranging from 50,000 to 130,000. Confronted with the gap of fuel consumption points and the gap of new energy points that may increase, the compensation pressure of these car companies before 2019 is also very large.

Through the statistics of the 2016 points data, the following results can be drawn: Of the 33 joint-venture vehicle companies, 9 fuel consumption is not up to standard, accounting for 27%; 20 new energy points are zero, accounting for 60%. Among the 63 autonomous car companies, 19 fuel consumption is not up to standard, accounting for 30%; 27 new energy points are zero, accounting for 42%. Among the 28 imported car companies, 16 fuel consumptions were not up to standard, accounting for 57%; 23 new energy credits were zero, accounting for 82%. In general, the small amount of imported car companies is easy to solve. Compared with the independent car companies that have invested in new energy sources earlier, the joint venture car companies have a significantly higher pressure to meet the new energy standard.

Although Heinzmann, president and CEO of Volkswagen Group (China), made it clear that purchasing points is not among the main options, Volkswagen has established a new energy joint venture with JAC in 2017 and released a large-scale, localized new energy strategy. However, it is still difficult to say whether the first batch of products can meet the demand for new energy points of more than 400,000 points in 2019 in China (more than 4.2 million vehicles were delivered in China in 2017). Mercedes-Benz also launched new energy investment and cooperation with its joint venture partner, Beijing Benz, and merged into Beiqi New Energy. However, as its shareholding ratio did not reach 25%, the problem of how to solve the thirst in Yuanshui still existed.

"BYDs" is expected to harvest the first pot of gold

For BYD, Beiqi and other car companies that hold a lot of new energy points, it means that a large amount of extra wealth will soon come. In 2016, the mandatory rules for negative credits must be paid. It is announced that new energy trading has entered the preheating period, and new energy credits have transaction value. New energy car companies are expected to usher in the first pot of gold for point trading.

According to 2016 data, the company with the most new energy score is BYD, among which BYD Auto Industry and BYD Automobile Co., Ltd. have 153,000 points and 141,000 points respectively, followed by BAIC shares and Geely. The points also reach more than 100,000, which is worth mentioning. The fact is that in the production of nearly 50,000 units of Beiqi New Energy in 2016, only 4,133 vehicles belonging to Beiqi New Energy were sold, and more than 40,000 new energy vehicles were all transferred to Beiqi. In addition, the new energy points for Jiangnan Automobile and JAC are between 50,000 points and 100,000 points.

In the points table published by the four ministries and commissions, in 2016, the fuel consumption of the passenger vehicle industry was 1,17,846,000 points, the negative value of fuel consumption was 1,429,900 points, and the new energy vehicle's positive score was 9,895,500 points. Since 2016 has not yet implemented the new energy score assessment, in the double-integration form in 2016, the new energy points generated by each car company are tradable points. However, starting from the assessment of new energy points in 2019, the new energy points for each car company must first ensure that they are up to standard, and the rest can be used for trading.

However, the current rules and pricing system for point trading have not been announced. At the end of 2017, the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET) pointed out in its “2017 China Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Development Report” (the “fuel consumption report”) that due to the “universal” role of new energy With huge profits, the auto industry has already given up efforts to abandon fuel consumption of traditional models and instead has invested heavily in new energy vehicles. This also indicates that the competition in the field of new energy vehicles will become more intense and the supply of points will increase. Although the current pricing for new energy point trading is still inconclusive, various forecasts within the industry believe that prices will fluctuate with increasing proportion of points and the degree of scarcity.

According to the plan, from 2016 to 2020, the average fuel consumption of new vehicles will be 6.7 liters, 6.4 liters, 6 liters, 5.5 liters, and 5 liters per 100 kilometers respectively. Increasingly difficult to achieve fuel consumption restrictions will enable domestic auto makers, especially auto makers, to invest more capital in the development of new energy vehicles. Forecast from the industry believes that in 2018, the electric vehicle market will still achieve a growth rate of 40%-50%, and annual sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million.